Challenges For Econometric Model Selection
Standard econometric model selection methods are based on four conceptual errors: parametric vision, the assumption of a true data generating process, evaluation based on fit, and ignoring the impact of model uncertainty on inference. Instead, econometric model selection methods should be based on a semiparametric vision, models should be viewed as approximations, models should be evaluated based on their purpose, and model uncertainty should be incorporated into inference methods. These problems have been examined individually but not jointly, and my view is that future research into econometric model selection should attempt to address all four issues.This research was supported by the National Science Foundation. I thank Peter Phillips and a referee for helpful comments that greatly improved the arguments and exposition.
Volume (Year): 21 (2005)
Issue (Month): 01 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_ECT
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lewis, Richard & Reinsel, Gregory C., 1985. "Prediction of multivariate time series by autoregressive model fitting," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 393-411, June.
- Leeb, Hannes & P tscher, Benedikt M., 2008.
"Can One Estimate The Unconditional Distribution Of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 338-376, April.
- Hannes Leeb & Benedikt M. Potscher, 2003. "Can One Estimate the Conditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1444, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Leeb, Hannes & Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2005. "Can One Estimate the Unconditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators ?," MPRA Paper 72, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pötscher, B.M., 1991. "Effects of Model Selection on Inference," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 163-185, June.
- Hong, Han & Preston, Bruce & Shum, Matthew, 2003. "Generalized Empirical Likelihood Based Model Selection Criteria For Moment Condition Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 923-943, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:21:y:2005:i:01:p:60-68_05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.