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On Variable Selection for Volatility Forecasting: The Role of Focused Selection Criteria

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  • Christian T. Brownlees
  • Giampiero M. Gallo

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the issues of modeling and projecting the dynamics of volatility when a group of potentially useful predetermined variables is available. We predict realized volatility and value at risk (VaR) with a nested set of multiplicative error models for realized volatility. We make use of recently proposed focused model selection/combination strategies as well as the classic AIC/BIC. Focused strategies consist of choosing the model that minimizes the estimated MSE of a given function of the parameters of interest to the forecaster. Results show that VaR forecasts can significantly be improved upon using focused prediction strategies. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.

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  • Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2008. "On Variable Selection for Volatility Forecasting: The Role of Focused Selection Criteria," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 513-539, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:6:y:2008:i:4:p:513-539
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbn012
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Behl, Peter & Dette, Holger & Frondel, Manuel & Vance, Colin, 2019. "A focused information criterion for quantile regression: Evidence for the rebound effect," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 223-227.
    2. Behl, Peter & Dette, Holger & Frondel, Manuel & Tauchmann, Harald, 2012. "Choice is suffering: A Focused Information Criterion for model selection," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 817-822.
    3. Cipollini, Fabrizio & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2010. "Automated variable selection in vector multiplicative error models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2470-2486, November.
    4. Gerda Claeskens, 2012. "Focused estimation and model averaging with penalization methods: an overview," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 66(3), pages 272-287, August.
    5. Behl, Peter & Dette, Holger & Frondel, Manuel & Tauchmann, Harald, 2013. "Energy substitution: When model selection depends on the focus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 233-238.
    6. Kley, Tobias & Preuss, Philip & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2019. "Predictive, finite-sample model choice for time series under stationarity and non-stationarity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101748, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Brownlees, Christian T. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2011. "Shrinkage estimation of semiparametric multiplicative error models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 365-378, April.
    8. Christian Brownlees & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Alice Monti, 2018. "Evaluating The Accuracy Of Tail Risk Forecasts For Systemic Risk Measurement," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-25, June.
    9. Céline Cunen & Nils Lid Hjort, 2020. "Confidence Distributions for FIC Scores," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-28, July.

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