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Assessment of models to forecast exchange rates: The quetzal–U.S. dollar exchange rate

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Eduardo Castillo-Maldonado

    (Banco de Guatemala)

  • Fidel Pérez-Macal

    (Banco de Guatemala)

Abstract

Based on Cheung, Chinn and García-Pascual (2004) and Meese and Rogoff (1983), the forecasting performance of a wide variety of theoretical and empirical exchange rate models (PPP, UIP, flexible and sticky-price monetary models, portfolio balance, and a BEER model) is tested against the random walk specification to determine their assessment in predicting the quetzal–U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate. Such models are estimated by applying a recursive regression methodology to quarterly data for the period 1995-2009. Estimations are performed based on an innovative trend-gap data disaggregation methodology, and an error-correction specification to contrast short vs. long run prediction performance, which is evaluated up to eight periods ahead for all model specifications. Different from previous results, forecasts provided by most specifications in the very short run (up to 2 quarters ahead), particularly the BEER specification, consistently outperform those obtained from the random walk model. An online appendix is available.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Eduardo Castillo-Maldonado & Fidel Pérez-Macal, 2013. "Assessment of models to forecast exchange rates: The quetzal–U.S. dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 16, pages 71-99, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:16:y:2013:n:1:p:71-99
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Castillo, Carlos, 2014. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility smoothing: A two-target, two-instrument approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 330-345.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    nominal exchange rate; econometric models; BEER;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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