Minimizing geographical basis risk of weather derivatives using a multi-site rainfall model
Weather risk is one of the main causes for income fluctuation in agriculture. Since 1997, the economic consequences of weather risk can be insured with weather derivatives, which are offered for many different weather events, such as temperature, rainfall, snow or hurricanes. It is well known that the hedging effectiveness of weather derivatives is interfered by the existence of geographical basis risk, i.e., the deviation of weather conditions at different locations. In this paper, we explore how geographical basis risk of rainfall based derivatives can be reduced by regional diversification. Minimizing geographical basis risk requires knowledge of the joint distribution of rainfall at different locations. For that purpose, we estimate a daily multi-site rainfall model from which optimal portfolio weights are derived. We find that this method allows to reduce geographical basis risk more efficiently than simpler approaches as, for example, inverse distance weighting.
|Date of creation:||23 Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.eaae.org|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yufei Jin & Roderick Rejesus & Bertis Little, 2005. "Binary choice models for rare events data: a crop insurance fraud application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 841-848.
- P. M. Bentler & Chih-Ping Chou, 1987. "Practical Issues in Structural Modeling," Sociological Methods & Research, SAGE Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 78-117, August.
- Xu, Wei & Filler, Gunther & Odening, Martin & Okhrin, Ostap, 2009.
"On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk,"
2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
49131, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Xu, Wei & Filler, Gunther & Odening, Martin & Okhrin, Ostap, 2009. "On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51426, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Guenther Filler & Martin Odening & Ostap Okhrin & Wei Xu, 2009. "On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-002, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Ernst Berg & Bernhard Schmitz, 2008. "Weather-based instruments in the context of whole-farm risk management," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 68(1), pages 119-133, September.
- López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2013. "Pricing rainfall futures at the CME," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4286-4298.
- Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005.
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Oliver Musshoff & Martin Odening & Wei Xu, 2009. "Management of climate risks in agriculture-will weather derivatives permeate?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(9), pages 1067-1077.
- Jason D. Woodard & Philip Garcia, 2008. "Basis risk and weather hedging effectiveness," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 68(1), pages 99-117, September.
- Martin Odening & Oliver Musshoff & Wei Xu, 2007. "Analysis of rainfall derivatives using daily precipitation models: opportunities and pitfalls," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 135-156, May.
- Wolfgang HÃ¤rdle & Maria Osipenko, 2011. "Pricing Chinese rain: a multi-site multi-period equilibrium pricing model for rainfall derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-055, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- J. P. Hughes & P Guttorp & S. P. Charles, 1999. "A non-homogeneous hidden Markov model for precipitation occurrence," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 48(1), pages 15-30.
- Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Barnett, Barry J., 2004. "Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(03), December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122527. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.