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Analysis of rainfall derivatives using daily precipitation models: opportunities and pitfalls

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Odening
  • Oliver Musshoff
  • Wei Xu

Abstract

This study examines rainfall variability and its implications for wheat production risk in northeast Germany. The hedging effectiveness of rainfall options and the role of geographical basis risk are analyzed using a daily precipitation model. Simpler pricing methods such as the burn analysis and the index value simulation serve as benchmarks for comparison. It is found that the choice of statistical approach may lead to considerable differences in the estimation results. Daily precipitation models should be used with some caution in the context of derivative pricing because they tend to underestimate rainfall variability. This is unexpected, because daily simulation models are usually preferred in the context of temperature-based weather indexes.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Odening & Oliver Musshoff & Wei Xu, 2007. "Analysis of rainfall derivatives using daily precipitation models: opportunities and pitfalls," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 135-156, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:v:67:y:2007:i:1:p:135-156
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brenda López Cabrera & Martin Odening & Matthias Ritter, 2013. "Pricing Rainfall Derivatives at the CME," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-005, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Wei Xu & Guenther Filler & Martin Odening & Ostap Okhrin, 2010. "On the systemic nature of weather risk," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 70(2), pages 267-284, August.
    3. Xu, Wei & Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2007. "Indifference Pricing of Weather Insurance," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9267, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Ceballos, Francisco, 2016. "Estimating spatial basis risk in rainfall index insurance: Methodology and application to excess rainfall insurance in Uruguay," IFPRI discussion papers 1595, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Wolfgang Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera, 2009. "Implied Market Price of Weather Risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-001, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    6. Musshoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2008. "Hedging von Mengenrisiken in der Landwirtschaft – Wie teuer dürfen „ineffektive“ Wetterderivate sein?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 0(Number 5), pages 1-12.
    7. repec:ags:gjagec:253150 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Zhiwei Shen & Martin Odening & Ostap Okhrin, 2016. "Can expert knowledge compensate for data scarcity in crop insurance pricing?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 237-269.
    9. Chung, Wonho, 2013. "Reducing the Social Cost of Federal Crop Insurance: A Role for US Government Hedging with Weather Derivatives," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 0(Issue 2), pages 1-26, August.
    10. Mußhoff, Oliver & Grüner, Sven & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2014. "Muss man begrenzte Rationalität und heuristisches Entscheiden bei der Erklärung für die Verbreitung von Wetterindexversicherungen in der Landwirtschaft berücksichtigen? – Eine Untersuchung auf d," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 63(2).
    11. M. Ritter & O. Mußhoff & M. Odening, 2014. "Minimizing Geographical Basis Risk of Weather Derivatives Using A Multi-Site Rainfall Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 67-86, June.
    12. Doms, Juliane, 2017. "Put, call or strangle? About the challenges in designing weather index insurances to hedge performance risk in agriculture," 57th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 13-15, 2017 261990, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    13. Ostap Okhrin & Martin Odening & Wei Xu, 2013. "Systemic Weather Risk and Crop Insurance: The Case of China," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(2), pages 351-372, June.
    14. repec:ags:gjagec:270173 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Mußhoff, O. & Odenin, M. & Wei, X., 2007. "Zur Quantifizierung des Basisrisikos von Wetterderivaten," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 0, March.
    16. Markus Stowasser, 2011. "Modelling rain risk: a multi-order Markov chain model approach," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 45-60, December.
    17. López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2013. "Pricing rainfall futures at the CME," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4286-4298.
    18. Banerjee, Chirantan & Berg, Ernst, 2012. "Policy for implementation of Index Based Weather Insurance revisited: the case of Nicaragua," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122448, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Leif Erec Heimfarth & Oliver Musshoff, 2011. "Weather index-based insurances for farmers in the North China Plain: An analysis of risk reduction potential and basis risk," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 218-239, August.
    20. Turvey, Calum G. & Kong, Rong & Belltawn, Burgen, 2009. "Weather Risk and the Viability of Weather Insurance In Western China," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49362, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Bokusheva, Raushan & Breustedt, Gunnar & Heidelbach, Olaf, 2007. "Ex-ante evaluation of weather-based index insurance and area-yield insurance for reducing crop yield risk," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9250, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    22. repec:ags:gjagec:232342 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Pelka, Niels & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2013. "Das Risikoreduzierungspotenzial von Wetterderivaten im Ackerbau: Einfachindizes versus Mischindizes," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 62(4).

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