On the systemic nature of weather risk
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the losses of weather-related insurance at different regional levels. The possibility of spatial diversification of insurance is explored by estimating the joint occurrence on unfavorable weather conditions in different locations, looking particularly at the tail behavior of the loss distribution. Design/methodology/approach – Joint weather-related losses are estimated using copulas. Copulas avoid the direct estimation of multivariate distributions but allow for much greater flexibility in modeling the dependence structure of weather risks compared with simple correlation coefficients. Findings – Results indicate that indemnity payments based on temperature as well as on cumulative rainfall show strong stochastic dependence even at a large regional scale. Thus the possibility to reduce risk exposure by increasing the trading area of insurance is limited. Research limitations/implications – The empirical findings are limited by a rather weak database. In that case the estimation of high-dimensional copulas leads to large estimation errors. Practical implications – The paper includes implications for the quantification of systemic weather risk which is important for the rate making of crop insurance and reinsurance. Originality/value – This paper's results highlight how important the choice of the statistical approach is when modeling the dependence structure of weather risks.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 70 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://emeraldgrouppublishing.com/products/journals/journals.htm?id=afr Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barry K. Goodwin, 2001. "Problems with Market Insurance in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 643-649.
- World Bank, 2005. "Managing Agricultural Production Risk : Innovations in Developing Countries," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14434, The World Bank.
- Martin, Steven W. & Barnett, Barry J. & Coble, Keith H., 2001. "Developing And Pricing Precipitation Insurance," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
- Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2008. "Application of Copulas to Estimation of Joint Crop Yield Distributions," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6264, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Martin Odening & Oliver Musshoff & Wei Xu, 2007. "Analysis of rainfall derivatives using daily precipitation models: opportunities and pitfalls," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 135-156, May.
- Mario J. Miranda & Joseph W. Glauber, 1997. "Systemic Risk, Reinsurance, and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 206-215.
- Xu, Wei & Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2008. "Optimal Design of Weather Bonds," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6781, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Markus Junker & Angelika May, 2005. "Measurement of aggregate risk with copulas," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(3), pages 428-454, December.
- Enzo Giacomini & Wolfgang Härdle, 2005. "Value-at-Risk Calculations with Time Varying Copulae," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Wolfgang Härdle & Ostap Okhrin & Yarema Okhrin, 2008. "Modeling Dependencies in Finance using Copulae," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-043, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- H. Holly Wang & Hao Zhang, 2003. "On the Possibility of a Private Crop Insurance Market: A Spatial Statistics Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 111-124.
- repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
- Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:v:70:y:2010:i:2:p:267-284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Louise Lister)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.