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Preis- und Ertragsrisiken auf Agrarmärkten in Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Günther Filler

    (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Martin Odening

    (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Harald Grethe

    (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Dieter Kirschke

    (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

Abstract

It is frequently stated that price risk in European agriculture in-creases due to the liberalization of formerly regulated markets. This argument is used to motivate the necessity of risk manage-ment and income stabilization for farms. Against this background we empirically investigate the price volatility of major agricultural commodities in Germany and its development over time. It turns out that the patterns of price volatility actually reflect the changes in the agricultural policy over the last two decades. While the vola-tility for milk and cereals increased considerably, this is not the case for hogs and rape. In second step we analyze the vulnerability of farms with regards to price and yield risk by means of stochas-tic simulation. Thereby we take into account the stochastic de-pendence between various prices and yields. Though it is difficult to draw general conclusions it is quite obvious that low performing farms are highly jeopardized by their risk exposure.

Suggested Citation

  • Günther Filler & Martin Odening & Harald Grethe & Dieter Kirschke, 2010. "Preis- und Ertragsrisiken auf Agrarmärkten in Deutschland," Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 3(1), pages 77-108.
    • Handle: RePEc:cha:ysa001:v:3:y:2010:i:1:p:77-108
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pennings, Joost M E & Pennings, Joost M E, 1997. "Verschiebung des Preisrisikos mit Hilfe von Terminkontrakten in der Agrarwirtschaft," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 46(10).
    2. Wei Xu & Guenther Filler & Martin Odening & Ostap Okhrin, 2010. "On the systemic nature of weather risk," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(2), pages 267-284, August.
    3. Seung-Ryong Yang & B. Wade Brorsen, 1992. "Nonlinear Dynamics of Daily Cash Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(3), pages 706-715.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Duden, C. & Offermann, F., 2019. "Farmers' risk exposition and its drivers," 171st Seminar, September 5-6, 2019, Zürich, Switzerland 333722, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Bronsema, Hauke & Sonntag, Winnie & Theuvsen, Ludwig, 2013. "Determinanten der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Milchviehbetrieben außerhalb von Erzeugungszentren," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156122, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    3. Steinhorst, M.P. & Bahrs, E., 2012. "Die Analyse der Rationalität im Verhalten von Stakeholdern des Agribusiness anhand eines Experiments," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 47, March.
    4. Finger, Robert, 2012. "Modeling the sensitivity of agricultural water use to price variability and climate change—An application to Swiss maize production," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 135-143.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural markets; price volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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