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Systemic Weather Risk and Crop Insurance: The Case of China

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  • Ostap Okhrin
  • Martin Odening
  • Wei Xu

Abstract

The supply of affordable crop insurance is hampered by the existence of systemic weather risk which results in large risk premiums. In this article, we assess the systemic nature of weather risk for 17 agricultural production regions in China and explore the possibility of spatial diversification of this risk. We simulate the buffer load of hypothetical temperature-based insurance and investigate the relation between the size of the buffer load and the size of the trading area of the insurance. The analysis makes use of a hierarchical Archimedean copula approach (HAC) which allows flexible modeling of the joint loss distribution and reveals the dependence structure of losses in different insured regions. Our results show a significant decrease of the required risk loading when the insured area expands. Nevertheless, a considerable part of undiversifiable risk remains with the insurer. We find that the spatial diversification effect depends on the type of the weather index and the strike level of the insurance. Our findings are relevant for insurers and insurance regulators as they shed light on the viability of private crop insurance in China.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ostap Okhrin & Martin Odening & Wei Xu, 2013. "Systemic Weather Risk and Crop Insurance: The Case of China," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(2), pages 351-372, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:80:y:2013:i:2:p:351-372
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2012.01476.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Lu Zong & Manuela Ender, 2016. "Spatially-Aggregated Temperature Derivatives: Agricultural Risk Management in China," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-17, September.
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    3. Bucheli, Janic & Dalhaus, Tobias & Finger, Robert, 2022. "Temperature effects on crop yields in heat index insurance," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Wu, Yang-Che, 2020. "Equilibrium in natural catastrophe insurance market under disaster-resistant technologies, financial innovations and government interventions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 116-128.
    5. Xiaotao Li & Jinzheng Ren & Beibei Niu & Haiping Wu, 2020. "Grain Area Yield Index Insurance Ratemaking Based on Time–Space Risk Adjustment in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Ceballos, Francisco, 2016. "Estimating spatial basis risk in rainfall index insurance: Methodology and application to excess rainfall insurance in Uruguay," IFPRI discussion papers 1595, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Lysa Porth & Milton Boyd & Jeffrey Pai, 2016. "Reducing Risk Through Pooling and Selective Reinsurance Using Simulated Annealing: An Example from Crop Insurance," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 41(2), pages 163-191, September.
    8. Khaledi-Alamdari, Mohammad & Majnooni-Heris, Abolfazl & Fakheri-Fard, Ahmad & Russo, Ana, 2023. "Probabilistic climate risk assessment in rainfed wheat yield: Copula approach using water requirement satisfaction index," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    9. Yaoyao Wu & Hanqi Liao & Lei Fang & Guizhen Guo, 2023. "Quantitative Study on Agricultural Premium Rate and Its Distribution in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, January.
    10. Yuehua Zhang & Ying Cao & H. Holly Wang, 2018. "Cheating? The Case of Producers’ Under‐Reporting Behavior in Hog Insurance in China," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 66(3), pages 489-510, September.
    11. Awondo, Sebastain N., 2019. "Efficiency of region-wide catastrophic weather risk pools: Implications for African Risk Capacity insurance program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 111-118.
    12. Gong, Xuche & Feng, Hongli & Hennessy, David A., "undated". "Systemic Risk, Geography and Area Insurance," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274479, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Zhu, Wenjun & Wang, Chou-Wen & Tan, Ken Seng, 2016. "Structure and estimation of Lévy subordinated hierarchical Archimedean copulas (LSHAC): Theory and empirical tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 20-36.
    14. Kamleshan Pillay, 2026. "Assessing the financial feasibility of municipal flood risk pooling in the Western Cape, South Africa," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 51(1), pages 208-237, January.
    15. Yong Liu & Alan P. Ker, 2021. "Simultaneous borrowing of information across space and time for pricing insurance contracts: An application to rating crop insurance policies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(1), pages 231-257, March.
    16. Christian Biener & Martin Eling & Shailee Pradhan, 2015. "Recent Research Developments Affecting Nonlife Insurance—The CAS Risk Premium Project 2013 Update," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 129-141, March.
    17. Martínez-Salgueiro, Andrea & Tarrazón-Rodón, María-Antonia, 2020. "Is diversification effective in reducing the systemic risk implied by a market for weather index-based insurance in Spain?," MPRA Paper 119924, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 May 2021.
    18. Lysa Porth & Milton Boyd & Jeffrey Pai, 2016. "Reducing Risk Through Pooling and Selective Reinsurance Using Simulated Annealing: An Example from Crop Insurance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 41(2), pages 163-191, September.
    19. A. Ford Ramsey & Barry K. Goodwin, 2019. "Value-at-Risk and Models of Dependence in the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, April.
    20. Franziska Gaupp & Georg Pflug & Stefan Hochrainer‐Stigler & Jim Hall & Simon Dadson, 2017. "Dependency of Crop Production between Global Breadbaskets: A Copula Approach for the Assessment of Global and Regional Risk Pools," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(11), pages 2212-2228, November.
    21. Ben Ammar, Semir & Braun, Alexander & Eling, Martin, 2015. "Alternative Risk Transfer and Insurance-Linked Securities: Trends, Challenges and New Market Opportunities," I.VW HSG Schriftenreihe, University of St.Gallen, Institute of Insurance Economics (I.VW-HSG), volume 56, number 56.

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • Q19 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Other

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