IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea08/6282.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling Dependence in the Design of Whole Farm---A Copula-Based Model Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zhu, Ying
  • Ghosh, Sujit K.
  • Goodwin, Barry K.

Abstract

The objective of this study is to evaluate and model the risks of corn and soybean production. This study focuses on the risk of revenue variability that arises from changes in prices, yields shortfalls or both. There are several models for price and yield risk factors for corn and soybeans. For instance, yield risks can be modeled by a family of Beta distributions, whereas price shocks can be modeled by log-normal distributions. In order to develop a multivariate model that preserves a given set of marginals, a copula approach can be used to characterize the joint yield and price risk of corn and soybeans, which are usually highly correlated. The copula approach has been spurred by the recent developments in the whole farm insurance (WFI), resulting in an increasing need for the modeling of multivariate risk factors and their interaction. As a part of the study, various copula models are investigated for their suitability in modeling yield and price risks. Finally, the proposed copula approach is illustrated with simulated data to calculate the premium rate of the whole farm insurance. Results show that WFI is superior to crop-specific insurance with premia 36% cheaper than the latter.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Ying & Ghosh, Sujit K. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2008. "Modeling Dependence in the Design of Whole Farm---A Copula-Based Model Approach," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6282, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6282
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6282
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/6282/files/468216.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.6282?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David A. Hennessy & Bruce A. Babcock & Dermot J. Hayes, 1997. "Budgetary and Producer Welfare Effects of Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1024-1034.
    2. David A. Hennessy & Bruce A. Babcock & Dermot J. Hayes, 1997. "Budgetary and Producer Welfare Effects of Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1024-1034.
    3. Coble, Keith H. & Heifner, Richard G. & Zuniga, Manuel, 2000. "Implications Of Crop Yield And Revenue Insurance For Producer Hedging," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miao, Ruiqing & Khanna, Madhu, 2015. "The Biomass Crop Assistance Program: Critical, Notional, or Distortional Support for Cellulosic Biofuels?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205818, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Miao, Ruiqing & Hennessy, David A. & Feng, Hongli, 2016. "The Effects of Crop Insurance Subsidies and Sodsaver on Land-Use Change," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(2), May.
    3. Seyyed Ali Zeytoon Nejad Moosavian & Barry K. Goodwin, 2021. "Flexible modelling of multivariate risks in pricing margin protection insurance: modelling portfolio risks with mixtures of mixtures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 411-440, January.
    4. Angelo Frascarelli & Simone Del Sarto & Giada Mastandrea, 2021. "A New Tool for Covering Risk in Agriculture: The Revenue Insurance Policy," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-16, July.
    5. Bokusheva, Raushan, 2010. "Measuring the dependence structure between yield and weather variables," MPRA Paper 22786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Songjiao Chen & William W. Wilson & Ryan Larsen & Bruce Dahl, 2015. "Investing in Agriculture as an Asset Class," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 353-371, June.
    7. Ostap Okhrin & Martin Odening & Wei Xu, 2013. "Systemic Weather Risk and Crop Insurance: The Case of China," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(2), pages 351-372, June.
    8. Mubenga-Tshitaka, Jean-Luc & Muteba Mwamba, John W. & Dikgang, Johane & Gelo, Dambala, 2021. "Risk spillover between climate variables and the agricultural commodity market in East Africa," EconStor Preprints 243160, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Željko Kokot & Todor Marković & Sanjin Ivanović & Maja Meseldžija, 2020. "Whole-Farm Revenue Protection as a Factor of Economic Stability in Crop Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-11, August.
    10. Wei Xu & Guenther Filler & Martin Odening & Ostap Okhrin, 2010. "On the systemic nature of weather risk," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(2), pages 267-284, August.
    11. Larsen, Ryan A. & Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Leatham, David J., 2009. "Enterprise-level risk assessment of geographically diversified commercial farms: a copula approach," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46763, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    12. Nasreldin, Osama Ahmed & Devesa, Teresa Serra, 2014. "Price volatility of food staples. The case of millet in Niger," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182728, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Miao, Ruiqing & Khanna, Madhu, 2017. "Costs of meeting a cellulosic biofuel mandate with perennial energy crops: Implications for policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 321-334.
    14. Songjiao Chen & William Wilson & Ryan Larsen & Bruce Dahl, 2016. "Risk Management for Grain Processors and “Copulas”," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(2), pages 365-382, June.
    15. Kobus, Paweł, 2013. "Modelling joint distribution of crop plant yields and prices with use of a copula function," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 13(28), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Bousebata, Meryem & Enjolras, Geoffroy & Girard, Stéphane, 2020. "The dependence structure between yields and prices: A copula-based model of French farm income," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304313, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Feng, Xiaoguang & Hayes, Dermot, 2014. "Is Government Involvement Really Necessary: Implications for Systemic Risk and Crop Reinsurance Contracts," 2014 AAEA: Crop Insurance and the 2014 Farm Bill Symposium: Implementing Change in U.S. Agricultural Policy, October 8-9, 2014, Louisville, KY 184241, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Larsen, Ryan A. & Leatham, David J. & Mjelde, James W. & Wolfley, Jared L., 2008. "Geographical Diversification: An Application of Copula Based CVaR," 2008 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, September 25-26, 2008, Kansas City, Missouri 119533, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    19. Mohit Anand & Ruiqing Miao & Madhu Khanna, 2019. "Adopting bioenergy crops: Does farmers’ attitude toward loss matter?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(4), pages 435-450, July.
    20. Rong-Gang Cong & Mette Termansen & Mark V. Brady, 2017. "Managing soil natural capital: a prudent strategy for adapting to future risks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 439-463, August.
    21. Miao, Ruiqing & Khanna, Madhu, 2015. "Costs of Meeting the Cellulosic Biofuel Mandate with an Energy Crop with Establishment Cost and Yield Risk: Implications for Policy," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212458, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    22. Ghahremanzadeh, Mohammad & Mohammadrezaei, Rassul & Dashti, Ghader & Ainollahi, Moharram, 2018. "Designing a whole-farm revenue insurance for agricultural crops in Zanjan province of Iran," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(02), January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2017. "A Probabilistic Model of Crop Insurance Purchase Decision," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Ramirez, Octavio & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2016. "Some Comparative Statics for Evaluating the Performance of the US Crop Insurance Program," SCC-76 Meeting, 2016, March 17-19, Pensacola, Florida 233761, SCC-76: Economics and Management of Risk in Agriculture and Natural Resources.
    3. Ashok Mishra & Barry Goodwin, 2006. "Revenue insurance purchase decisions of farmers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 149-159.
    4. María Bielza & Alberto Garrido & José M. Sumpsi, 2004. "Revenue insurance as an income stabilization policy: an application to the Spanish olive oil sector," Post-Print hal-01201063, HAL.
    5. Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Power, Gabriel J., 2008. "Risk-Reducing Effectiveness of Revenue versus Yield Insurance in the Presence of Government Payments," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 443-459, August.
    6. Richards, Timothy J. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "Infrequent Shocks and Rating Revenue Insurance: A Contingent Claims Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19, August.
    7. Bielza, Maria & Garrido, Alberto & Sumpsi, Jose Maria, 2002. "Revenue Insurance as an Income Stabilization Policy: An Application to the Spanish Olive Oil Sector," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24842, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Wang, H. Holly & Hanson, Steven D. & Black, J. Roy, 2003. "Efficiency Costs of Subsidy Rules for Crop Insurance," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-22, April.
    9. Mitchell, Paul D. & Knight, Thomas O., 2008. "Economic Analysis of Supplemental Deductible Coverage as Recommended in the USDA's 2007 Farm Bill Proposal," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 117-131, April.
    10. Coble, Keith H. & Barnett, Barry J., 1999. "The Role Of Research In Producer Risk Management," Professional Papers 15803, Mississippi State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    11. Makus, Larry D. & Wang, H. Holly & Chen, Xiaomei, 2003. "Evaluating Risk Management Strategies For Non-Irrigated Small Grain Producers," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22257, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Bielza, María & Garrido, Alberto & Sumpsi, José M., 2004. "Revenue insurance as an income stabilization policy: an application to the Spanish olive oil sector," Cahiers d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales (CESR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 70.
    13. Motamed, Mesbah J., 2021. "Price-Yield Covariance Effects on Producers’ Risk Profile and Risk Response," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314082, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Mitchell, Paul D. & Zhu, En (John), 2003. "Moral Hazard And Bt Corn Refuge," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22113, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Mitchell, Paul D., 2004. "Nutrient Best Management Practice Insurance and Farmer Perceptions of Adoption Risk," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 657-673, December.
    16. Mitchell, Paul D. & Knight, Thomas O., 2007. "Economic Analysis of Supplemental Deductible Coverage as Recommended in the USDA’s 2007 Farm Bill Proposal," Staff Papers 92125, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    17. Abel Tiemtore, 2021. "Examining the effects of agricultural income insurance on farmers in Burkina Faso," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 46(3), pages 422-439, July.
    18. Bielza, Maria & Garrido, Alberto & Sumpsi, Jose Maria, 2002. "El seguro de ingresos como instrumento de estabilizacion de las rentas de los agricultores: aplicacion al sector olivarero espanol," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(01), pages 1-23.
    19. Keith H. Coble & Robert Dismukes, 2008. "Distributional and Risk Reduction Effects of Commodity Revenue Program Design ," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 543-553.
    20. Anton, Jesus & Kimura, Shingo, 2009. "Farm Level Analysis of Risk, and Risk Management Strategies and Policies: Evidence from German Crop Farms," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51729, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Farm Management;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.