IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/saeana/46763.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Enterprise-level risk assessment of geographically diversified commercial farms: a copula approach

Author

Listed:
  • Larsen, Ryan A.
  • Vedenov, Dmitry V.
  • Leatham, David J.

Abstract

As agriculture becomes more industrialized, the role of risk measures such as value-at-risk (VaR) will become more utilized. In this case it was applied to geographical diversification and also modifying the traditional VaR estimation by incorporating a copula dependence parameter into the VaR estimation. In addition, an alternative risk measure was also calculated, CVaR. The CVaR, unlike VaR, is a coherent risk measure. Thus it does not suffer from many of the shortcomings of the VaR. The land portfolio consisted of Dryland wheat production acres in Texas, Colorado, and Montana. Three series of net returns were calculated for each region. Based on the VaR and the CVaR, the portfolio was optimized based on minimizing the expected loss based on historical net revenues. The results showed that diversification could be reduced by producing in all three areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Larsen, Ryan A. & Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Leatham, David J., 2009. "Enterprise-level risk assessment of geographically diversified commercial farms: a copula approach," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46763, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:saeana:46763
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.46763
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/46763/files/SAEAPaper1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.46763?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2008. "Application of Copulas to Estimation of Joint Crop Yield Distributions," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6264, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Harwood, Joy L. & Heifner, Richard G. & Coble, Keith H. & Perry, Janet E. & Somwaru, Agapi, 1999. "Managing Risk in Farming: Concepts, Research, and Analysis," Agricultural Economic Reports 34081, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista, 2004. "A Comparison of VaR and CVaR Constraints on Portfolio Selection with the Mean-Variance Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1261-1273, September.
    4. Basak, Gopal & Jagannathan, Ravi & Sun, Guoqiang, 2002. "A direct test for the mean variance efficiency of a portfolio," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1195-1215, July.
    5. Rulon D. Pope, 2003. "Agricultural Risk Analysis: Adequacy of Models, Data, and Issues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1249-1256.
    6. T. Jeffrey Price & Michael E. Wetzstein & Mark W. Rieger, 1997. "Reducing Yield Variation in Peach Orchards by Geographic Scattering," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1119-1126.
    7. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Schurle, Bryan W. & Langemeier, Michael R., 2005. "Three-Dimensional Efficient Portfolio Frontier: Mean, Variance, and Farm Size," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19298, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Francesca Carrieri & Vihang Errunza & Sergei Sarkissian, 2012. "The Dynamics of Geographic versus Sectoral Diversification: Is There a Link to the Real Economy?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-41.
    9. Richard E. Just & Quinn Weninger, 1999. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 287-304.
    10. Ehling, Paul & Ramos, Sofia B., 2006. "Geographic versus industry diversification: Constraints matter," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 396-416, October.
    11. Just, Richard E., 2003. "Risk research in agricultural economics: opportunities and challenges for the next twenty-five years," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 123-159.
    12. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management in Agricultural Markets: A Survey," Staff Papers 121140, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    13. Mishra, Ashok K. & Lence, Sergio H., 2005. "Risk Management by Farmers, Agribusinesses, and Lenders," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12607, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Rulon D. Pope & Richard Prescott, 1980. "Diversification in Relation to Farm Size and Other Socioeconomic Characteristics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(3), pages 554-559.
    15. Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Barnett, Barry J., 2004. "Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Alexander, S. & Coleman, T.F. & Li, Y., 2006. "Minimizing CVaR and VaR for a portfolio of derivatives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 583-605, February.
    17. Zhu, Ying & Ghosh, Sujit K. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2008. "Modeling Dependence in the Design of Whole Farm---A Copula-Based Model Approach," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6282, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    19. Qian, Gongming, 2002. "Multinationality, product diversification, and profitability of emerging US small- and medium-sized enterprises," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 611-633, October.
    20. David A. Hennessy & Harvey E. Lapan, 2002. "The Use of Archimedean Copulas to Model Portfolio Allocations," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 143-154, April.
    21. Meyer, Jack, 1987. "Two-moment Decision Models and Expected Utility Maximization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 421-430, June.
    22. Gilbert V. Nartea & Peter J. Barry, 1994. "Risk Efficiency and Cost Effects of Geographic Diversification," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 16(3), pages 341-351.
    23. Mario F. Crisostomo & Allen M. Featherstone, 1990. "A Portfolio Analysis of Returns to Farm Equity and Assets," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 12(1), pages 9-21.
    24. Stoica, George, 2006. "Relevant coherent measures of risk," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 794-806, September.
    25. Mark R. Manfredo & Raymond M. Leuthold, 2001. "Market risk and the cattle feeding margin: An application of Value-at-Risk," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 333-353.
    26. Carlo Acerbi, 2007. "Coherent measures of risk in everyday market practice," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 359-364.
    27. Angela M. Krueger & Victoria Salin & Allan W. Gray, 2001. "Geographic diversification strategy and the implications of global market integration in table grapes," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 81-99.
    28. Anthony Hatherley & Jamie Alcock, 2007. "Portfolio construction incorporating asymmetric dependence structures: a user's guide," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 47(3), pages 447-472, September.
    29. Krueger, Angela & Salin, Victoria & Williams, Gary W. & Eden, Lorraine & Gray, Allan W., 1999. "Profitability Of Geographic Diversification Strategy," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 30(1), pages 1-12, March.
    30. Liang, Nellie & Rhoades, Stephen A., 1988. "Geographic diversification and risk in banking," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 271-284, November.
    31. Joost M.E. Pennings & Olga Isengildina-Massa & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia & Darrel L. Good, 2008. "Producers' complex risk management choices," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 31-54.
    32. Ashok K. Mishra & Sergio H. Lence, 2005. "Risk management by farmers, agribusinesses, and lenders," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 65(2), pages 131-148, November.
    33. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2007. "Mean-variance portfolio selection with `at-risk' constraints and discrete distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3761-3781, December.
    34. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Larsen, Ryan A. & Leatham, David J. & Mjelde, James W. & Wolfley, Jared L., 2008. "Geographical Diversification: An Application of Copula Based CVaR," 2008 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, September 25-26, 2008, Kansas City, Missouri 119533, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    2. Songjiao Chen & William W. Wilson & Ryan Larsen & Bruce Dahl, 2015. "Investing in Agriculture as an Asset Class," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 353-371, June.
    3. Songjiao Chen & William Wilson & Ryan Larsen & Bruce Dahl, 2016. "Risk Management for Grain Processors and “Copulas”," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(2), pages 365-382, June.
    4. Larsen, Ryan A. & Mjelde, James W. & Klinefelter, Danny A. & Wolfley, Jared L., 2009. "Geographical Diversification in Agriculture: An Applied Case to Western U.S. Wheat Growers," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46819, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Mandal, Maitreyi & Lagerkvist, Carl Johan, 2012. "A Comparison of Traditional and Copula based VaR with Agricultural portfolio," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. MacNicol, R. & Ortmann, Gerald F. & Ferrer, Stuart R.D., 2008. "Management decisions on commercial sugarcane farms in KwaZulu-Natal: a focus on choice bracketing behaviour for risk management," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(1), pages 1-24, March.
    7. Bokusheva, Raushan, 2010. "Measuring the dependence structure between yield and weather variables," MPRA Paper 22786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Anastassiadis, Friederike & Liebe, Ulf & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Finanzielle Flexibilität In Landwirtschaftlichen Investitionsentscheidungen: Ein Discrete Choice Experiment," 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 137142, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    9. Zhichao Zhang & Li Ding & Fan Zhang & Zhuang Zhang, 2015. "Optimal Currency Composition for China's Foreign Reserves: A Copula Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(12), pages 1947-1965, December.
    10. Alexandre Street, 2010. "On the Conditional Value-at-Risk probability-dependent utility function," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 49-68, February.
    11. Boehlje, Michael & Roucan-Kane, Maud & Broring, Stefanie, 2011. "Future Agribusiness Challenges: Strategic Uncertainty, Innovation and Structural Change," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1-29, December.
    12. Anastassiadis, Friederike & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2013. "Evaluating the role of financial flexibility in farmers' investment decisions using latent class analysis," 87th Annual Conference, April 8-10, 2013, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 158707, Agricultural Economics Society.
    13. Ani L. Katchova, 2005. "The Farm Diversification Discount," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 984-994.
    14. Yang Zhao & Charalampos Stasinakis & Georgios Sermpinis & Filipa Da Silva Fernandes, 2019. "Revisiting Fama–French factors' predictability with Bayesian modelling and copula‐based portfolio optimization," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 1443-1463, October.
    15. L. Jeff Hong & Zhaolin Hu & Liwei Zhang, 2014. "Conditional Value-at-Risk Approximation to Value-at-Risk Constrained Programs: A Remedy via Monte Carlo," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 26(2), pages 385-400, May.
    16. Zhang Qingye & Gao Yan, 2017. "An Asset Allocation Model and Its Solving Method," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 163-175, April.
    17. Lyubomir Lyubenov & Anelia Lyubenova, 2023. "Bulgaria’s Financial Markets In Agribusiness - Size, Structure And Development Trends," Economic Archive, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 2 Year 20, pages 48-61.
    18. Eiling, Esther & Gerard, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & de Roon, Frans A., 2012. "International portfolio diversification: Currency, industry and country effects revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1249-1278.
    19. Xu Guo & Raymond H. Chan & Wing-Keung Wong & Lixing Zhu, 2019. "Mean–variance, mean–VaR, and mean–CVaR models for portfolio selection with background risk," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 73-98, June.
    20. Anastassiadis, F. & Liebe, U. & Mußhoff, O., 2013. "Finanzielle Flexibilität in landwirtschaftlichen Investitionsentscheidungen: Ein Discrete Experiment," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 48, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:saeana:46763. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/saeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.