IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaae11/114256.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Alternative Insurance Indexes for Drought Risk in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Bobojonov, Ihtiyor
  • Sommer, Rolf

Abstract

The paper compares the risk coping potential of insurances that are based on indices derived from weather (rainfall and temperature) data as well as from crop model and remote sensing analyses. Corresponding indices were computed for the case of wheat production in the Aleppo region of northern Syria, representative for agricultural production systems in many developing countries. The results demonstrate that weather derivatives such as the rainfall sum index (RSI) and the rainfall deficit index (RDI) have a very good potential for coping with risk in semiarid areas. Crop simulation model index (CSI) on the other hand could serve as an alternative to RSI and RDI when historical farm yield data is not available or not reliable. In such cases we simulated historical yields using the CropSyst cropping system simulation model. Remote sensing data could be used to establish index insurances where weather stations are sparsely located and (daily time step) weather data thus not available. The study analyzes two indexes estimated from the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI): (1.) the farm level NDVI (FNDVI) and (2.) the area level NDVI (ANDVI). FNDVI may have a very high potential for securing farm revenues, but may be prone to moral hazard since farm management changes and subsequent gains or losses in crop production are directly revealed by the NDVI when high resolution images are used. Therefore, we recommend ANDVI for developing countries since the index is estimated for the whole agricultural zone similar to traditional area-yield insurances.

Suggested Citation

  • Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Sommer, Rolf, 2011. "Alternative Insurance Indexes for Drought Risk in Developing Countries," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114256, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114256
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.114256
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/114256/files/Bobojonov_Ihtiyor_82.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.114256?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei Xu & Guenther Filler & Martin Odening & Ostap Okhrin, 2010. "On the systemic nature of weather risk," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(2), pages 267-284, August.
    2. Berg, Ernst & Schmitz, Bernhard, 2007. "Weather-based instruments in the context of whole farm risk management," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9269, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Martin Odening & Oliver Musshoff & Wei Xu, 2007. "Analysis of rainfall derivatives using daily precipitation models: opportunities and pitfalls," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 67(1), pages 135-156, May.
    4. Xu, Wei & Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2007. "Indifference Pricing of Weather Insurance," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9267, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Musshoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2008. "Hedging von Mengenrisiken in der Landwirtschaft – Wie teuer dürfen „ineffektive“ Wetterderivate sein?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(05), pages 1-12.
    2. M. Ritter & O. Mußhoff & M. Odening, 2014. "Minimizing Geographical Basis Risk of Weather Derivatives Using A Multi-Site Rainfall Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 67-86, June.
    3. Ostap Okhrin & Martin Odening & Wei Xu, 2013. "Systemic Weather Risk and Crop Insurance: The Case of China," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(2), pages 351-372, June.
    4. Chung, Wonho, 2013. "Reducing the Social Cost of Federal Crop Insurance: A Role for US Government Hedging with Weather Derivatives," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 1-26, August.
    5. Nelson Christopher Dzupire & Philip Ngare & Leo Odongo, 2019. "Pricing Basket Weather Derivatives on Rainfall and Temperature Processes," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-14, June.
    6. Buchholz, Matthias & Musshoff, Oliver, 2014. "The role of weather derivatives and portfolio effects in agricultural water management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 34-44.
    7. Zhiwei Shen & Martin Odening, 2013. "Coping with systemic risk in index-based crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 1-13, January.
    8. Zhiwei Shen & Martin Odening & Ostap Okhrin, 2016. "Can expert knowledge compensate for data scarcity in crop insurance pricing?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 43(2), pages 237-269.
    9. Bokusheva, Raushan, 2010. "Measuring the dependence structure between yield and weather variables," MPRA Paper 22786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Liu, X. & Xu, W. & Odening, M., 2011. "Lassen sich Ertragsrisiken in der Landwirtschaft global diversifizieren?," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 46, March.
    11. Roland Strausz, 2009. "The Political Economy of Regulatory Risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    12. Markus Stowasser, 2011. "Modelling rain risk: a multi-order Markov chain model approach," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 45-60, December.
    13. Wei Xu & Guenther Filler & Martin Odening & Ostap Okhrin, 2010. "On the systemic nature of weather risk," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(2), pages 267-284, August.
    14. Bokusheva, Raushan & Breustedt, Gunnar & Heidelbach, Olaf, 2007. "Ex-ante evaluation of weather-based index insurance and area-yield insurance for reducing crop yield risk," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9250, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Baez, Karen & Iglesias, Eva, 2011. "Innovative Tools To Address Drought Risk In Grazing Lands," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114232, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Filonov, Vitaly & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2011. "Applications of copulas to Analysis of Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103972, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Pelka, Niels & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2013. "Das Risikoreduzierungspotenzial von Wetterderivaten im Ackerbau: Einfachindizes versus Mischindizes," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 62(04), pages 1-13, November.
    18. Turvey, Calum G. & Kong, Rong & Belltawn, Burgen, 2009. "Weather Risk and the Viability of Weather Insurance In Western China," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49362, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Alexander Baranovski & Carsten von Lieres & André Wilch, 2009. "New recipes for estimating default intensities," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    20. Simona Franzoni & Cristian Pelizzari, 2021. "Rainfall option impact on profits of the hospitality industry through scenario correlation and copulas," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 939-962, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.