Weather insurance design with optimal hedging effectiveness
I construct index-based weather insurance contracts with optimal hedging effectiveness for the insured or maximal profits for the insurer. In contrast to earlier work, I refrain from imposing functional form assumptions on the stochastic relationship between weather and yield and from restricting attention to (piecewise) linear contracts. Instead, I derive the shape of the optimal weather insurance contracts empirically by non-parametrically estimating yield distributions conditional on weather. I find that the optimal pay-off structure is non-linear for the entire range of weather realizations. I measure risk reduction of optimal weather insurance contracts for different weather indices and levels of risk aversion. Considering profit-maximizing contracts, I find that at modest levels of risk aversion (coefficient of relative risk aversion around 2), a loading factor of 10% of the fair premium is possible such that the insurance contract remains attractive for the insured. With higher levels of risk aversion, loading of more than 50% becomes possible.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2011|
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