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Weather index drought insurance: an ex ante evaluation for millet growers in Niger

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  • Leblois, Antoine
  • Quirion, Philippe
  • Alhassane, Agali
  • Traore, Seydou

Abstract

In the Sudano-Sahelian region, which includes South Niger, the inter-annual variability of the rainy season is high and irrigation is scarce. As a consequence, bad rainy seasons have a massive impact on crop yield and regularly entail food crises. Traditional insurances based on crop damage assessment are not available because of asymmetric information and high transaction costs compared to the value of production. We assess the risk mitigation capacity of an alternative form of insurance which has been implemented in India since 2003: insurance based on a weather index. We compare the capacity of various weather indices to increase utility of a representative risk-averse farmer. We show the importance of using plot-level yield data rather than village averages, which bias results. We also illustrate the need for out-of-sample estimations in order to avoid overfitting. Even with the appropriate index and assuming a substantial risk aversion, we find a limited gain of implementing insurance, roughly corresponding to, or slightly exceeding, the cost of implementing such insurances observed in India. However, when we treat separately the plots with and without fertilizers, we show that the benefit of insurance is higher in the former case. This suggests that insurances may increase the use of risk-increasing inputs like fertilizers and improved cultivars, hence average yields, which are very low in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Leblois, Antoine & Quirion, Philippe & Alhassane, Agali & Traore, Seydou, 2011. "Weather index drought insurance: an ex ante evaluation for millet growers in Niger," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120378, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:120378
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.120378
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    Cited by:

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    2. Takahashi, Kazushi & Ikegami, Munenobu & Sheahan, Megan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2014. "Quasi-experimental evidence on the drivers of index-based livestock insurance demand in Southern Ethiopia," IDE Discussion Papers 480, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    3. Takahashi, Kazushi & Ikegami, Munenobu & Sheahan, Megan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2016. "Experimental Evidence on the Drivers of Index-Based Livestock Insurance Demand in Southern Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 324-340.
    4. Wienand Kölle & Andrea Martínez Salgueiro & Matthias Buchholz & Oliver Musshoff, 2021. "Can satellite‐based weather index insurance improve the hedging of yield risk of perennial non‐irrigated olive trees in Spain?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 66-93, January.
    5. Möllmann, Johannes & Buchholz, Matthias & Kölle, Wienand & Musshoff, Oliver, 2020. "Do remotely-sensed vegetation health indices explain credit risk in agricultural microfinance?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Afriyie-Kraft, Lydia & Zabel, Astrid & Damnyag, Lawrence, 2020. "Index-based weather insurance for perennial crops: A case study on insurance supply and demand for cocoa farmers in Ghana," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    7. Antoine Leblois & Philippe Quirion & Benjamin Sultan, 2013. "Price vs. weather shock hedging for cash crops: ex ante evaluation for cotton producers in Cameroon," Working Papers hal-00796528, HAL.
    8. Moghaddasi, Reza & Eghbali, Alireza & Lakhaye Rizi, Parisa, 2014. "Analysis and Forecasting of Drought by Developing a Fuzzy-Based Hybrid Index in Iran," MPRA Paper 53153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Marco Rogna & Günter Schamel & Alex Weissensteiner, 2019. "Choosing between Hail Insurance and Anti-Hail Nets: A Simple Model and a Simulation among Apples Producers in South Tyrol," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS62, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    10. Lima Miquelluti, Daniel & Ozaki, Vitor & Miquelluti, David J., 2020. "An application of geographically weighted quantile LASSO to weather index insurance design," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304288, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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