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Deutsche forschungsintensive Industrie: Feuerprobe in der Krise bestanden?

Listed author(s):
  • Heike Belitz
  • Martin Gornig
  • Alexander Schiersch

In Germany, unlike other OECD countries, research-intensive industries play a crucial role for overall economic growth. In the course of the 2008/2009 financial crisis these industries were hit especially hard by a sharp decline in production. This article studies how the crisis affected the international competitive position of German research-intensive industries by looking at the development of value added and labor productivity. Internationally comparable data on the subject, however, are only available with a time lag. Therefore, the respective data are estimated for Germany, the USA, Japan, the UK, France and Italy using time series models and leading indicators for the 2008 to 2010 period. Our results show that German research-intensive industries have successfully overcome the crisis and maintained its leading international position. Die Bedeutung der forschungsintensiven Industrie für die gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung ist in keinem anderen großen OECD-Land so hoch wie in Deutschland. Im Zuge der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise 2008/2009 kam es aber gerade in diesem Bereich zu starken Produktionseinbrüchen. Dieser Beitrag geht der Frage nach, inwieweit dies einen Einfluss auf die internationale Wettbewerbsposition der deutschen Industrie hatte. Dafür wird die Entwicklung der Wertschöpfung und der Arbeitsproduktivität in der forschungsintensiven Industrie analysiert. Die entsprechenden Daten stehen im internationalen Vergleich allerdings nur mit erheblicher zeitlicher Verzögerung zur Verfügung. Deshalb haben wir für Deutschland, die USA, Japan, Großbritannien, Frankreich und Italien die Wertschöpfung und das Arbeitsvolumen mit Vorlaufindikatoren und Zeitreihenmodellen für die Jahre 2008 bis 2010 geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse weisen insgesamt darauf hin, dass die deutsche forschungsintensive Industrie die Krise gemeistert hat und ihre Spitzenposition im internationalen Vergleich behaupten konnte.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 80 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 35-54

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:80-3-3
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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
  2. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  3. Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, 2007. "Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  4. Ferdinand Fichtner & Kerstin Bernoth & Franziska Bremus & Karl Brenke & Christian Dreger & Burcu Erdogan & Hendrik Hagedorn & Vladimir Kuzin & Katharina Moll & Maximilian Podstawski & Jasper Scheppe &, 2010. "Sommergrundlinien 2010," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 77(26), pages 2-28.
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Heike Belitz & Martin Gornig & Alexander Schiersch, 2011. "Wertschöpfung und Produktivität wieder stark gestiegen," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(17), pages 5-10.
  7. Heike Belitz & Martin Gornig & Alexander Schiersch, 2010. "Deutsche Industrie durch forschungsintensive Güter erfolgreich," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 77(9), pages 2-10.
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