IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v63y2023i1p485-505.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Timing the factor zoo via deep learning: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Tian Ma
  • Cunfei Liao
  • Fuwei Jiang

Abstract

This paper proposes a factor timing strategy with information from 146 characteristic‐based factors and a deep learning approach to capture the nonlinear predictability. The deep learning‐based factor timing strategy generates the highest economic value compared with the unconditional and alternative linear machine learning‐based portfolios and remains robust after controlling for traditional factor models and transaction costs. With the unique market structure of the Chinese stock market, we find that mispricing‐based theory helps explain the factor timing via deep learning.

Suggested Citation

  • Tian Ma & Cunfei Liao & Fuwei Jiang, 2023. "Timing the factor zoo via deep learning: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 485-505, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:63:y:2023:i:1:p:485-505
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.13033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.13033
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.13033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leippold, Markus & Wang, Qian & Zhou, Wenyu, 2022. "Machine learning in the Chinese stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 64-82.
    2. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    3. Xi Dong & Yan Li & David E. Rapach & Guofu Zhou, 2022. "Anomalies and the Expected Market Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 639-681, February.
    4. Joachim Freyberger & Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber & Andrew KarolyiEditor, 2020. "Dissecting Characteristics Nonparametrically," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2326-2377.
    5. Yacine AÏT‐SAHALI & Michael W. Brandt, 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1297-1351, August.
    6. Guanhao Feng & Jingyu He & Nicholas G. Polson, 2018. "Deep Learning for Predicting Asset Returns," Papers 1804.09314, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    7. Luyang Chen & Markus Pelger & Jason Zhu, 2024. "Deep Learning in Asset Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 714-750, February.
    8. Shihao Gu & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2223-2273.
    9. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2020. "Replicating Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2019-2133.
    10. Liu, Jianan & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yuan, Yu, 2019. "Size and value in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 48-69.
    11. Jiang, Fuwei & Qi, Xinlin & Tang, Guohao, 2018. "Q-theory, mispricing, and profitability premium: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 135-149.
    12. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    13. Akbas, Ferhat & Armstrong, Will J. & Sorescu, Sorin & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2016. "Capital Market Efficiency and Arbitrage Efficacy," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 387-413, April.
    14. Jiang, Fuwei & Lee, Joshua & Martin, Xiumin & Zhou, Guofu, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 126-149.
    15. Shihao Gu & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(5), pages 2223-2273.
    16. Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
    17. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    18. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    19. Sina Ehsani & Juhani T. Linnainmaa, 2022. "Factor Momentum and the Momentum Factor," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1877-1919, June.
    20. Matti Keloharju & Juhani T. Linnainmaa & Peter Nyberg, 2016. "Return Seasonalities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1557-1590, August.
    21. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    22. Gu, Shihao & Kelly, Bryan & Xiu, Dacheng, 2021. "Autoencoder asset pricing models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 429-450.
    23. Jeremiah Green & John R. M. Hand & X. Frank Zhang, 2017. "The Characteristics that Provide Independent Information about Average U.S. Monthly Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(12), pages 4389-4436.
    24. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lu, Fangzhou & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2021. "The real value of China’s stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 679-696.
    25. Robert Novy-Marx & Mihail Velikov, 2016. "A Taxonomy of Anomalies and Their Trading Costs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 104-147.
    26. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    27. Minyou Fan & Youwei Li & Ming Liao & Jiadong Liu, 2022. "A reexamination of factor momentum: How strong is it?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 585-615, August.
    28. Guohao Tang & Fuwei Jiang & Xinlin Qi & Nan Huang, 2021. "It takes two to tango: Fundamental timing in stock market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5259-5277, October.
    29. Theis Ingerslev Jensen & Bryan T. Kelly & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2021. "Is There A Replication Crisis In Finance?," NBER Working Papers 28432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Tian & Wang, Wanwan & Chen, Yu, 2023. "Attention is all you need: An interpretable transformer-based asset allocation approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Zhao, Chencheng & Yuan, Xianghui & Long, Jun & Jin, Liwei & Guan, Bowen, 2023. "Financial indicators analysis using machine learning: Evidence from Chinese stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cakici, Nusret & Fieberg, Christian & Metko, Daniel & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Machine learning goes global: Cross-sectional return predictability in international stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Doron Avramov & Si Cheng & Lior Metzker, 2023. "Machine Learning vs. Economic Restrictions: Evidence from Stock Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2587-2619, May.
    3. Wolfgang Drobetz & Tizian Otto, 2021. "Empirical asset pricing via machine learning: evidence from the European stock market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(7), pages 507-538, December.
    4. Söhnke M. Bartram & Harald Lohre & Peter F. Pope & Ananthalakshmi Ranganathan, 2021. "Navigating the factor zoo around the world: an institutional investor perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 655-703, July.
    5. Cakici, Nusret & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Machine learning and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Ma, Tian & Liao, Cunfei & Jiang, Fuwei, 2024. "Factor momentum in the Chinese stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Malakhov, Alexey & Riley, Timothy B. & Yan, Qing, 2024. "Do hedge funds bet against beta?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1507-1525.
    8. Ma, Tian & Leong, Wen Jun & Jiang, Fuwei, 2023. "A latent factor model for the Chinese stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Doron Avramov & Si Cheng & Lior Metzker & Stefan Voigt, 2023. "Integrating Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1593-1646, June.
    10. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Kalsbach, Tobias, 2023. "Machine learning and the cross-section of emerging market stock returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    11. Xi Dong & Yan Li & David E. Rapach & Guofu Zhou, 2022. "Anomalies and the Expected Market Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 639-681, February.
    12. Christian Fieberg & Daniel Metko & Thorsten Poddig & Thomas Loy, 2023. "Machine learning techniques for cross-sectional equity returns’ prediction," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(1), pages 289-323, March.
    13. Yan, Jingda & Yu, Jialin, 2023. "Cross-stock momentum and factor momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    14. Esfandiar Maasoumi & Jianqiu Wang & Zhuo Wang & Ke Wu, 2024. "Identifying factors via automatic debiased machine learning," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 438-461, April.
    15. Bui, Dien Giau & Kong, De-Rong & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2023. "Momentum in machine learning: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    17. Wang, Jianqiu & Wu, Ke & Tong, Guoshi & Chen, Dongxu, 2023. "Nonlinearity in the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 174-205.
    18. Zaremba, Adam & Szyszka, Adam & Long, Huaigang & Zawadka, Dariusz, 2020. "Business sentiment and the cross-section of global equity returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    19. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Boons, Martijn & Opp, Christian C. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Dynamic asset (mis)pricing: Build-up versus resolution anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 406-431.
    20. Haixiang Yao & Shenghao Xia & Hao Liu, 2024. "Return predictability via an long short‐term memory‐based cross‐section factor model: Evidence from Chinese stock market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1770-1794, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:63:y:2023:i:1:p:485-505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.