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Deep Learning in Asset Pricing

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  • Luyang Chen
  • Markus Pelger
  • Jason Zhu

Abstract

We use deep neural networks to estimate an asset pricing model for individual stock returns that takes advantage of the vast amount of conditioning information, while keeping a fully flexible form and accounting for time-variation. The key innovations are to use the fundamental no-arbitrage condition as criterion function, to construct the most informative test assets with an adversarial approach and to extract the states of the economy from many macroeconomic time series. Our asset pricing model outperforms out-of-sample all benchmark approaches in terms of Sharpe ratio, explained variation and pricing errors and identifies the key factors that drive asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Luyang Chen & Markus Pelger & Jason Zhu, 2019. "Deep Learning in Asset Pricing," Papers 1904.00745, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1904.00745
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    3. Qihui Chen & Nikolai Roussanov & Xiaoliang Wang, 2021. "Semiparametric Conditional Factor Models: Estimation and Inference," Papers 2112.07121, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    4. Mykola Babiak & Jozef Barunik, 2020. "Deep Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp677, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    5. Wolfgang Drobetz & Tizian Otto, 2021. "Empirical asset pricing via machine learning: evidence from the European stock market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(7), pages 507-538, December.
    6. Alexander Arimond & Damian Borth & Andreas Hoepner & Michael Klawunn & Stefan Weisheit, 2020. "Neural Networks and Value at Risk," Papers 2005.01686, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    7. Kristof Lommers & Ouns El Harzli & Jack Kim, 2021. "Confronting Machine Learning With Financial Research," Papers 2103.00366, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    8. Jorge Guijarro-Ordonez & Markus Pelger & Greg Zanotti, 2021. "Deep Learning Statistical Arbitrage," Papers 2106.04028, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    9. Michael Karpe, 2020. "An overall view of key problems in algorithmic trading and recent progress," Papers 2006.05515, arXiv.org.
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    12. Victor DeMiguel & Javier Gil-Bazo & Francisco J. Nogales & André A. P. Santos, 2021. "Can Machine Learning Help to Select Portfolios of Mutual Funds?," Working Papers 1245, Barcelona School of Economics.
    13. Mohamed Ben Alaya & Ahmed Kebaier & Djibril Sarr, 2021. "Deep Calibration of Interest Rates Model," Papers 2110.15133, arXiv.org.
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    17. Philip Ndikum, 2020. "Machine Learning Algorithms for Financial Asset Price Forecasting," Papers 2004.01504, arXiv.org.
    18. Tian Ma & Cunfei Liao & Fuwei Jiang, 2023. "Timing the factor zoo via deep learning: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 485-505, March.
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