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Does inequality really matter in forecasting real housing returns of the United Kingdom?

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  • Hassani, Hossein
  • Yeganegi, Mohammad Reza
  • Gupta, Rangan

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the potential role of growth in inequality for forecasting real housing returns of the United Kingdom. In our forecasting exercise, we use linear and nonlinear models, as well as measures of absolute and relative consumption and income inequalities at quarterly frequency over the period 1975–2016. Our results indicate that, while nonlinearity in the data generating process of real housing returns is important, growth in inequality does not necessarily carry important information in forecasting the future path of housing prices in the United Kingdom.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassani, Hossein & Yeganegi, Mohammad Reza & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Does inequality really matter in forecasting real housing returns of the United Kingdom?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 18-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:159:y:2019:i:c:p:18-25
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2019.03.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Hossein Hassani & Mohammad Reza Yeganegi & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Historical Forecasting Of Interest Rate Mean And Volatility Of The United States: Is There A Role Of Uncertainty?," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(04), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "How Do Housing Returns in Emerging Countries Respond to Oil Shocks? A MIDAS Touch," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(15), pages 4286-4311, December.
    3. Duan, Kun & Zhang, Liya & Chen, Shuyun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2025. "Heterogeneous housing bubbles and monetary policy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Marilena Mironiuc & Elena Ionașcu & Maria Carmen Huian & Alina Țaran, 2021. "Reflecting the Sustainability Dimensions on the Residential Real Estate Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-28, March.
    5. Berisha, Edmond & Meszaros, John & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Income inequality and house prices across US states," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 192-197.
    6. Abebe Hailemariam & Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Russell Smyth & Kingsley Tetteh Baako, 2021. "Income inequality and housing prices in the very long‐run," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(1), pages 295-321, July.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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