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Accuracy and efficiency in the U.S. Department of Energy's short-term supply forecasts

Listed author(s):
  • Sanders, Dwight R.
  • Manfredo, Mark R.
  • Boris, Keith
Registered author(s):

    One-step-ahead forecasts of quarterly crude oil, natural gas, electricity, and coal supplies are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and classification- or directional-based measures. Results suggest the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) supply forecasts for U.S. domestic energy products are generally more accurate than a naïve alternative. There is only limited evidence of bias and inefficiency in the forecasts; although there is some evidence of error repetition. Directional forecasts for supply changes are statistically better than random, but they generally do not outperform a naïve forecast.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140-9883(07)00016-3
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 3 (May)
    Pages: 1192-1207

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:3:p:1192-1207
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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