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Tipo de cambio real y sus fundamentos: Estimación del desalineamiento

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  • Ferreyra, Jesús
  • Herrada, Rafael

Abstract

Esta investigación compara dos enfoques para examinar en qué magnitud el tipo de cambio real actual es consistente con los fundamentos económicos. El enfoque del FEER calcula el tipo de cambio real que iguala la cuenta corriente a pleno empleo con una cuenta corriente objetivo teniendo en cuenta criterios de sostenibilidad de la cuenta corriente. El enfoque del BEER utiliza métodos econométricos para establecer un vinculo para explicar el tipo de cambio real con las principales variables económicas que lo explican. En el documento se expone el marco teórico presentando una breve discusión sobre las diferentes bases conceptuales que deben tomarse en cuenta para la especificación de un modelo de tipo de cambio real de equilibrio. Partiendo de una rápida revisión de las definiciones de equilibrio y desalineamiento, se pasa a una descripción de modelos uniecuacionales y estructurales, como las principales alternativas propuestas en la literatura para la estimación del tipo de cambio real de equilibrio. Asimismo se define los conceptos del FEER y el BEER. Seguidamente, se estiman los dos enfoques presentados en la sección anterior, y se hace un resumen de la metodología utilizada en la estimación. Asimismo, se presenta un estudio sobre la sostenibilidad de la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferreyra, Jesús & Herrada, Rafael, 2003. "Tipo de cambio real y sus fundamentos: Estimación del desalineamiento," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 10.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-10-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaramillo Franco, Miguel & Serván Lozano, Sergio, 2012. "Modeling exchange rate dynamics in Peru: A cointegration approach using the UIP and PPP," MPRA Paper 70772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Leon, Jorge & Mendez, Eduardo & Prado, Eduardo, 2003. "El Tipo de Cambio Real de Costa Rica
      [Real Exchange Rate of Costa Rica]
      ," MPRA Paper 44509, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2003.
    3. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Tipo de cambio real en la República Dominicana: Enfoques alternativos de equilibrio y desalineamiento
      [Real exchange rate in the Dominican Republic: Alternative approaches to equilibrium and misali
      ," MPRA Paper 70943, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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