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Tipo de cambio real y sus fundamentos: Estimación del desalineamiento

Esta investigación compara dos enfoques para examinar en qué magnitud el tipo de cambio real actual es consistente con los fundamentos económicos. El enfoque del FEER calcula el tipo de cambio real que iguala la cuenta corriente a pleno empleo con una cuenta corriente objetivo teniendo en cuenta criterios de sostenibilidad de la cuenta corriente. El enfoque del BEER utiliza métodos econométricos para establecer un vinculo para explicar el tipo de cambio real con las principales variables económicas que lo explican. En el documento se expone el marco teórico presentando una breve discusión sobre las diferentes bases conceptuales que deben tomarse en cuenta para la especificación de un modelo de tipo de cambio real de equilibrio. Partiendo de una rápida revisión de las definiciones de equilibrio y desalineamiento, se pasa a una descripción de modelos uniecuacionales y estructurales, como las principales alternativas propuestas en la literatura para la estimación del tipo de cambio real de equilibrio. Asimismo se define los conceptos del FEER y el BEER. Seguidamente, se estiman los dos enfoques presentados en la sección anterior, y se hace un resumen de la metodología utilizada en la estimación. Asimismo, se presenta un estudio sobre la sostenibilidad de la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos.

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File URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/10/Estudios-Economicos-10-7.pdf
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Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-10-07
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  1. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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