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Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices? Recent Evidence using Australian Data

Author

Listed:
  • Kieran Burgess

    (Griffith University)

  • Nicholas Rohde

    (Griffith University)

Abstract

Recent papers by Chen et al (2009, 2010) suggest that exchange rates have predictive power over future commodity price movements. We use a Vector Error-Correction model to test this hypothesis using Australian data. We find substantial evidence of in-sample forecasting power but are unable to consistently out-perform naïve benchmarks for out-of-sample forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Kieran Burgess & Nicholas Rohde, 2013. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices? Recent Evidence using Australian Data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 511-518.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-12-00410
    as

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2013/Volume33/EB-13-V33-I1-P48.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Harri, Ardian & Nalley, Lanier & Hudson, Darren, 2009. "The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 501-510, August.
    4. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    5. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Predicting Agri-Commodity Prices: an Asset Pricing Approach," Working Papers UWEC-2010-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    6. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
    7. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    8. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
    9. David Gruen & Tro Kortian, 1996. "Why Does the Australian Dollar Move so Closely with the Terms of Trade?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9601, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    11. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    12. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    13. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    14. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    15. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhuhua Jiang & Rim El Khoury & Muneer M. Alshater & Seong‐Min Yoon, 2024. "Impact of global macroeconomic factors on spillovers among Australian sector markets: Fresh findings from a wavelet‐based analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 78-105, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Time-Series; Cointegration; Vector Error-Correction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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