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Modelling the Impact of Overnight Surprises on Intra-daily Stock Returns

In this paper we examine under what circumstances the information accumulated during market closing time and conveyed to the price formation at market opening may be exploited to predict where the stock price will be at the end of the trading day. In our sample of three financial time series, we find that, in spite of linear uncorrelatedness, there exists a strong nonlinear dependence structure in the conditional mean of the intra-daily returns. To model this structure we use the functional-coefficient (FC) model of Cai, Fan, and Yao (2000) where the coefficients are time-varying and dependent on the state of stock return volatility. Out-of-sample forecast performances of the FC models and linear models where the coefficients are constant are also compared using the criteria of mean square forecast errors, trading returns, and directional forecasts.

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Paper provided by Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti" in its series Econometrics Working Papers Archive with number wp2001_03.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 24 Oct 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2001_03
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  1. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
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  4. Ho, Hwai-Chung Jeff & Lin, Chien-fu, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 272, July.
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  6. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
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  8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  9. A. Ronald Gallant & Chien-Te Hsu & George Tauchen, 1999. "Using Daily Range Data To Calibrate Volatility Diffusions And Extract The Forward Integrated Variance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 617-631, November.
  10. Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group.
  11. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
  12. Stoll, Hans R & Whaley, Robert E, 1990. "Stock Market Structure and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 37-71.
  13. Zongwu Cai & Jianqing Fan & Qiwei Yao, 2000. "Functional-coefficient regression models for nonlinear time series," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6314, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Dow, James & Gorton, Gary, 1993. "Trading, Communication and the Response of Asset Prices to News," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 639-46, May.
  15. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
  16. David Romer, 1992. "Rational Asset Price Movements Without News," NBER Working Papers 4121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Baillie, Richard T, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 273-76, July.
  18. Geweke, John, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 269-71, July.
  19. C. W. J. GRANGER & Zhuanxin DING, 1995. "Some Properties of Absolute Return: An Alternative Measure of Risk," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 40, pages 67-91.
  20. Robinson, P M, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 276-79, July.
  21. Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, EconWPA.
  22. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1987. " Trading Mechanisms and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 533-53, July.
  23. Granger, Clive W. J., 1992. "Forecasting stock market prices: Lessons for forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 3-13, June.
  24. Gallo Giampiero M. & Pacini Barbara, 1998. "Early News is Good News: The Effects of Market Opening on Market Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 1-19, January.
  25. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
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