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Return, Trading Volume, and Market Depth in Currency Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ai-ru (Meg) Cheng

    (University of California, Santa Cruz)

  • Yin-Wong Cheung

    (University of California, Santa Cruz)

Abstract

We use a class of stochastic volatility models with multiple latent factors to investigate the joint dynamics of return, trading volume, and open interest (a proxy for market depth) in currency futures markets. In accordance with theory, the empirical evidence indicates that there is more than one latent factor affecting these three variables. However, the evidence is ambivalent on the choice between two- and three-latent-factor models. These three variables also display different patterns of information spillovers across currency futures.

Suggested Citation

  • Ai-ru (Meg) Cheng & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2008. "Return, Trading Volume, and Market Depth in Currency Futures Markets," Working Papers 202008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:202008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby & Barbara Ostdiek, 2006. "Stochastic Volatility, Trading Volume, and the Daily Flow of Information," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1551-1590, May.
    2. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
    3. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    4. Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-321, March.
    5. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J., 1993. "Price Volatility, Trading Volume, and Market Depth: Evidence from Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 21-39, March.
    6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    7. Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2000. "Bayesian Analysis of Dynamic Bivariate Mixture Models: Can They Explain the Behavior of Returns and Trading Volume?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 199-210, April.
    8. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
    9. Donald Lien & Li Yang, 2006. "Spot‐futures spread, time‐varying correlation, and hedging with currency futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(10), pages 1019-1038, October.
    10. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
    11. Fung, Hung-Gay & Patterson, Gary A., 1999. "The dynamic relationship of volatility, volume, and market depth in currency futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 33-59, January.
    12. Jennings, Robert H & Starks, Laura T & Fellingham, John C, 1981. "An Equilibrium Model of Asset Trading with Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 143-161, March.
    13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
    14. repec:bla:restud:v:65:y:1998:i:3:p:361-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Liesenfeld, Roman, 2001. "A generalized bivariate mixture model for stock price volatility and trading volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 141-178, August.
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    18. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2009. "Bank Competition and International Financial Integration: Evidence using a new index," FIW Working Paper series 037, FIW.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic Volatility Model; Multiple Latent Factors; Model Comparison; Volatility Spillovers;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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