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Empirical models for secondary market debt prices

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  • Thomas Fullerton

Abstract

This paper extends earlier research regarding predictability of secondary market prices for sovereign debt certificates issued by developing countries. Due to the existence of a thinly traded market subject to potential outliers, parameter estimation is accomplished by means of a least absolute deviations methodology. Simulation results are compared with previously published forecasts where model coefficients were generated via threestage least squares. Both methodologies appear to be useful and combined forecasts may prove helpful in situations where neither technique dominates.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Fullerton, 1998. "Empirical models for secondary market debt prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(6), pages 393-395.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:5:y:1998:i:6:p:393-395
    DOI: 10.1080/135048598354780
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan Alford & Jacques Lussier, 1993. "An Examination of the Price Discount on the External Debt of Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 713-724, November.
    2. Wakeman-Linn, John, 1991. "The Market for Developing Country Debt: The Nature and Importance of Its Shortcomings," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 6(2), pages 191-203, July.
    3. Gennotte, Gerard & Kharas, Homi J & Sadeq, Sayeed, 1987. "A Valuation Model of Developing-Country Debt with Endogenous Rescheduling," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 1(2), pages 237-271, January.
    4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    5. Stone, Mark R., 1991. "Are sovereign debt secondary market returns sensitive to macroeconomic fundamentals? Evidence from the contemporary and interwar markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages 100-122, March.
    6. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
    7. Anayiotos, George & de Pinies, Jaime, 1990. "The secondary market and the international debt problem," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(12), pages 1655-1669, December.
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    1. Flores Prieto, Pedro & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Andrade Olivas, Cesar, 2007. "Evidencia empirica sobre deuda externa, inversion, y crecimiento en Mexico, 1980-2003 [Empirical evidence on foreign debt, investment, and growth in Mexico, 1980-2003]," MPRA Paper 9497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007.

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