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Evidencia empirica sobre deuda externa, inversion, y crecimiento en Mexico, 1980-2003
[Empirical evidence on foreign debt, investment, and growth in Mexico, 1980-2003]

Listed author(s):
  • Flores Prieto, Pedro
  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
  • Andrade Olivas, Cesar

Under some conditions, it is possible that foreign debt can cause fixed investment in a country to decline. Under those circumstances, economic growth will turn negative. This theoretical possibility is known as the debt overhang hypothesis. This study investigates the debt overhang hypothesis for Mexico between 1980 and 2003. Parameter estimation results offer partial empirical evidence in favor of this hypothesis. Simulation results exhibit a high degree of correlation with actual sample data.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9497/1/MPRA_paper_9497.pdf
File Function: original version
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9497.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision: Apr 2007
Publication status: Published in Analisis Economico 50.22(2007): pp. 149-171
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9497
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  1. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2004. "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt38j2b036, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  2. Sachs, J. & Huizinga, H.P., 1987. "U.S. commercial banks and the developing-country debt crisis," Other publications TiSEM ada14007-7229-4f6d-a016-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  3. Kraay, Aart & Nehru, Vikram, 2004. "When is external debt sustainable?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3200, The World Bank.
  4. Husain, Aasim M, 1997. "Domestic Taxes and the External Debt Laffer Curve," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 519-525, August.
  5. Bulow, J. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Sovereign Debt: Is To Forgive To Forget?," Papers 411, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  6. Lederman, Daniel & Menendez, Ana Maria & Perry, Guillermo & Stiglitz, Joseph, 2003. "Mexican investment after the Tequila crisis: basic economics, "confidence" effects or market imperfections?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 131-151, February.
  7. Carl F. Christ, 1993. "Assessing applied econometric results," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 71-94.
  8. Barry Eichengreen, 2003. "Restructuring Sovereign Debt," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 75-98, Fall.
  9. Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr., 1999. "Inflationary pressure determinants in México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 14(1), pages 33-51.
  10. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  11. Snyder, Christopher M., 1998. "Loan Commitments and the Debt Overhang Problem," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(01), pages 87-116, March.
  12. Claessens, Stijn, 1990. "The debt laffer curve: Some estimates," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(12), pages 1671-1677, December.
  13. Andrew M. Warner, 1992. "Did the Debt Crisis Cause the Investment Crisis?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1161-1186.
  14. Warner, Andrew M., 1994. "Mexico's investment collapse: debt or oil?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 239-256, April.
  15. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Oviedo, P. Marcelo, 2006. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America: The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12700, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  16. Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March.
  17. Henry, Peter B. & Arslanalp, Serkan, 2003. "Is Debt Relief Efficient?," Research Papers 1837, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  18. Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. & W. Charles Sowyer & Richard L. Sprinkle, 1997. "Functional form for United States-México trade equations," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 12(1), pages 23-35.
  19. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Richard L Sprinkle, 2004. "Latin American Progress under Structural Reform," Development and Comp Systems 0408012, EconWPA.
  20. Thomas Fullerton, 1998. "Empirical models for secondary market debt prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(6), pages 393-395.
  21. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1986. "Crédito internacional: Aspectos teóricos," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 1(2), pages 219-254.
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