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Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico

Author

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  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Cuauhtemoc Calderon

    (Colegio de la Frontera Norte)

Abstract

A monetary inflation model is augmented to include import prices and wages in a theoretically plausible manner. Empirical analysis is carried out using annual data for the 1970-1997 period. Parameter estimation is completed using a nonlinear ARMAX procedure. In addition to estimating different versions of the model, ex post simulations are conducted to further assess reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Cuauhtemoc Calderon, 2004. "Inflationary Pressure Determinants in Mexico," Macroeconomics 0407030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0407030
    Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
    2. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "Moderate Inflation," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(1), pages 1-44, January.
    3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Sylvanus I Ikhide, 2004. "An Econometric Analysis of the Nigerian Consumer Price Index," Development and Comp Systems 0407010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Engsted, Tom, 1993. "Cointegration and Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 350-360, August.
    5. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Richard A Hirth & Mark B Smith, 2004. "Inflationary Dynamics and the Angell-Johnson Proposals," Macroeconomics 0409009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Pagan, Adrian, 1974. "A Generalised Approach to the Treatment of Autocorrelation," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(23), pages 267-280, December.
    7. Brian Motley, 1993. "Inflation and growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec31.
    8. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "A Theoretical Model of Developing Country Inflationary Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0407031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Sheehey, Edmund J, 1976. "The Dynamics of Inflation in Latin America: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 692-694, September.
    10. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics," Development and Comp Systems 0408002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hanson, James A., 1985. "Inflation and imported input prices in some inflationary Latin American economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 395-410, August.
    12. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Short-Run Price Movements in Ecuador," Macroeconomics 0407028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kamas, Linda, 1995. "Monetary policy and inflation under the crawling peg: Some evidence from VARs for Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-161, February.
    14. Thomas M. Fullerton, 1993. "Un modelo macroeconométrico para pronosticar la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 12(24), pages 101-136, December.
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    16. Betancourt, Roger R, 1976. "The Dynamics of Inflation in Latin America: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 688-691, September.
    17. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1993. "Inflationary trends in Colombia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 463-468, August.
    18. Carl F. Christ, 1993. "Assessing applied econometric results," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 71-94.
    19. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1984. "On the monetary-macro dynamics of Colombia and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 183-201.
    20. Sheehey, Edmund J., 1980. "Money, income and prices in Latin America : An empirical note," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 345-357, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Flores Prieto, Pedro & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Andrade Olivas, Cesar, 2007. "Evidencia empirica sobre deuda externa, inversion, y crecimiento en Mexico, 1980-2003 [Empirical evidence on foreign debt, investment, and growth in Mexico, 1980-2003]," MPRA Paper 9497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007.
    2. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "Short-Run Price Dynamics in Mexico," Macroeconomics 0407027, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mexico; Inflation; Applied Econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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