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An Econometric Analysis of the Nigerian Consumer Price Index

  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Sylvanus I Ikhide

    (Central Bank of Botswana)

A theoretical model of the inflationary process in Nigeria is developed using monetary aggregates, the exchange rate, and the implicit cost of holding idle cash balances. Parameter estimation is accomplished using quarterly data for 1970:1 through 1993:4 and a nonlinear ARMAX procedure. Equations are estimated using M1 and M2 money suypply measures. Empirical traits for both equations are similar, but out-of- sample simulations with the M2 version generate lower infaltion forecasts than those of the M1 equation.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0407010.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 27 Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0407010
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 15
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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  1. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "A Theoretical Model of Industrial Economy Inflationary Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0408007, EconWPA.
  2. Hanson, James A., 1985. "Inflation and imported input prices in some inflationary Latin American economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 395-410, August.
  3. Engsted, Tom, 1993. "Cointegration and Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 350-60, August.
  4. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September.
  5. Kamas, Linda, 1995. "Monetary policy and inflation under the crawling peg: Some evidence from VARs for Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-161, February.
  6. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Short-Run Price Movements in Ecuador," Macroeconomics 0407028, EconWPA.
  7. Sheehey, Edmund J, 1976. "The Dynamics of Inflation in Latin America: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 692-94, September.
  8. Brian Motley, 1993. "Inflation and growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec31.
  9. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1993. "Inflationary trends in Colombia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 463-468, August.
  10. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "A Theoretical Model of Developing Country Inflationary Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0407031, EconWPA.
  11. Tomas M Fullerton & Ajay Kapur, 1991. "Predicción de multiplicadores monetarios en Colombia, Ecuador y Venezuela," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 35, pages 53-86.
  12. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Richard A Hirth & Mark B Smith, 2004. "Inflationary Dynamics and the Angell-Johnson Proposals," Macroeconomics 0409009, EconWPA.
  13. Thomas M. Fullerton, 1993. "Un modelo macroeconométrico para pronosticar la economía colombiana," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  14. Sheehey, Edmund J., 1980. "Money, income and prices in Latin America : An empirical note," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 345-357, September.
  15. Betancourt, Roger R, 1976. "The Dynamics of Inflation in Latin America: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 688-91, September.
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