Forecasting foreign exchange rates with adaptive neural networks using radial-basis functions and Particle Swarm Optimization
The motivation for this paper is to introduce a hybrid neural network architecture of Particle Swarm Optimization and Adaptive Radial Basis Function (ARBF–PSO), a time varying leverage trading strategy based on Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (GJR) volatility forecasts and a neural network fitness function for financial forecasting purposes. This is done by benchmarking the ARBF–PSO results with those of three different neural networks architectures, a Nearest Neighbors algorithm (k-NN), an autoregressive moving average model (ARMA), a moving average convergence/divergence model (MACD) plus a naı¨ve strategy. More specifically, the trading and statistical performance of all models is investigated in a forecast simulation of the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY ECB exchange rate fixing time series over the period January 1999–March 2011 using the last 2years for out-of-sample testing.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yang, Jian & Su, Xiaojing & Kolari, James W., 2008. "Do Euro exchange rates follow a martingale? Some out-of-sample evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 729-740, May.
- Bekiros, S. & Georgoutsos, D., 2006.
"Direction-of-Change Forecasting using a Volatility- Based Recurrent Neural Network,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
06-16, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- S. D. Bekiros & D. A. Georgoutsos, 2008. "Direction-of-change forecasting using a volatility-based recurrent neural network," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 407-417.
- Shapiro, Arnold F., 2000. "A Hitchhiker's guide to the techniques of adaptive nonlinear models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 119-132, May.
- Huck, Nicolas, 2010. "Pairs trading and outranking: The multi-step-ahead forecasting case," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1702-1716, December.
- Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
- Khurshid Kiani & Terry Kastens, 2008. "Testing Forecast Accuracy of Foreign Exchange Rates: Predictions from Feed Forward and Various Recurrent Neural Network Architectures," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 383-406, November.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990.
"A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance,"
29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple, Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Bekiros, Stelios D., 2010. "Fuzzy adaptive decision-making for boundedly rational traders in speculative stock markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 285-293, April.
- Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000.
"Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
- Adeodato, Paulo J.L. & Arnaud, Adrian L. & Vasconcelos, Germano C. & Cunha, Rodrigo C.L.V. & Monteiro, Domingos S.M.P., 2011. "MLP ensembles improve long term prediction accuracy over single networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 661-671, July.
- Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Charalambous, Chris & Martzoukos, Spiros H., 2008. "Pricing and trading European options by combining artificial neural networks and parametric models with implied parameters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1415-1433, March.
- Panda, Chakradhara & Narasimhan, V., 2007. "Forecasting exchange rate better with artificial neural network," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 227-236.
- Yang, Jian & Cabrera, Juan & Wang, Tao, 2010. "Nonlinearity, data-snooping, and stock index ETF return predictability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 498-507, January.
- Adeodato, Paulo J.L. & Arnaud, Adrian L. & Vasconcelos, Germano C. & Cunha, Rodrigo C.L.V. & Monteiro, Domingos S.M.P., 2011. "MLP ensembles improve long term prediction accuracy over single networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 661-671.
- Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
- Wang, Ju-Jie & Wang, Jian-Zhou & Zhang, Zhe-George & Guo, Shu-Po, 2012. "Stock index forecasting based on a hybrid model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 758-766.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:225:y:2013:i:3:p:528-540. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.