IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bok/wpaper/1604.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Spillovers from U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Its Normalization to Emerging Markets: A Capital Flow Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Sangwon Suh

    (School of Economics, Chung-Ang University)

  • Byung-Soo Koo

    (Daegu-Gyeongbuk Branch, Bank of Korea)

Abstract

Policy makers employed unconventional monetary policy (UMP) tools to respond to the recent global financial crisis in the U.S. and other advanced economies, and the UMP is about to be normalized. In this paper, we try to quantitiatively assess the effects of the UMP and its normalization on capital flows to emerging market economies. We find that the UMP significantly affected capital flows on average. The effects of the normalization are closely related with the effects of the UMP. Importantly, the larger the capital inflows due to the UMP, the larger the capital outflows due to the normalization. Moreover, policy makers need to be careful of a potential risk of unexpected capital outflows (exceeding the expected ones) during an uncertain period whose size tends to be proportional to the size of the previous capital inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Sangwon Suh & Byung-Soo Koo, 2016. "Spillovers from U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Its Normalization to Emerging Markets: A Capital Flow Perspective," Working Papers 2016-4, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    • Handle: RePEc:bok:wpaper:1604
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://papers.bok.or.kr/RePEc_attach/wpaper/english/wp-2016-4.pdf
    File Function: Working Paper, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    3. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    4. Agosin, Manuel R. & Huaita, Franklin, 2012. "Overreaction in capital flows to emerging markets: Booms and sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1140-1155.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry & Wyplosz, Charles & Arteta, Carlos, 2001. "When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More Than it Hurts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Kyoungsoo Yoon & Jayoung Kim, 2015. "Costs of Foreign Capital Flows in Emerging Market Economies: Unexpected Economic Growth and Increased Financial Market Volatility," Working Papers 2015-21, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    8. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    9. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    11. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    12. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    13. Xuan-Vinh Vo, 2010. "Net private capital flows and economic growth-the case of emerging Asian economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3135-3146.
    14. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    15. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Helene Rey, 2013. "Dilemma not trilemma: the global cycle and monetary policy independence," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-2.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suh, Sangwon, 2017. "Sudden stops of capital flows to emerging markets: A new prediction approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 289-308.
    2. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    3. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2021. "Capital flow waves—or ripples? Extreme capital flow movements since the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. N. R. Bhanumurthy & Lokendra Kumawat, 2020. "Financial Globalization and Economic Growth in South Asia," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 21(1), pages 31-57, March.
    6. Kyoungsoo Yoon & Jayoung Kim, 2015. "Costs of Foreign Capital Flows in Emerging Market Economies: Unexpected Economic Growth and Increased Financial Market Volatility," Working Papers 2015-21, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    7. Jaume Ventura & Fernando Broner, 2008. "Rethinking the effects of financial liberalization," 2008 Meeting Papers 747, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Fernando Broner & Jaume Ventura, 2016. "Rethinking the Effects of Financial Globalization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1497-1542.
    9. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2010. "Financialization and the Global Economy," Working Papers wp240, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    10. Malayaranjan Sahoo & Narayan Sethi, 2023. "An Empirical Insight into the Financial Globalization–Growth Nexus via Trade Openness: Evidence from Select South Asian Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(2), pages 317-334, April.
    11. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    12. Jeanne, Olivier & Noland, Marcus & Subramanian, Arvind & Williamson, John, 2013. "Financial globalization and long-run growth: is Asia different?," MPRA Paper 55794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    14. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Öcal, 2022. "Analysis of distinct asymmetries in financial integration‐growth nexus for industrial, emerging and developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2326-2344, April.
    15. Yung Chul Park & Shinji Takagi, 2012. "Managing Capital Flows in an Economic Community: The Case of ASEAN Capital Account Liberalization," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 8(3), pages 299-320, August.
    16. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, 2008. "Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 337-355, December.
    18. Kuzman, Tanja & Lazarevic, Jelisaveta & Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2022. "Capital flows liberalisation and macroprudential policies: The effects on credit cycles in emerging economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 602-619.
    19. Chan, Marc K. & Kwok, Simon, 2018. "Connecting the markets? Recent evidence on China’s capital account liberalization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 417-428.
    20. Garita, Gus, 2009. "How Does Financial Openness Affect Economic Growth and its Components?," MPRA Paper 20099, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Unconventional monetary policy; Emerging markets; Cross-border borrowings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bok:wpaper:1604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Economic Research Institute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imbokkr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.