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A Note on Investor Happiness and the Predictability of Realized Volatility of Gold

Author

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  • Matteo Bonato

    () (Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, South Africa and IPAG Business School, 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France)

  • Konstantinos Gkillas

    () (Department of Business Administration, University of Patras – University Campus, Rio, P.O. Box 1391, 26500 Patras, Greece)

  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    () (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

We apply the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR-RV) model to examine the importance of investor happiness in predicting the daily realized volatility of gold returns. We estimate daily realized volatility by employing intraday data providing both in-sample and out-of sample predictions. Our in-sample results reveal that realized volatility is negatively linked to investor happiness. Moreover, our out-of-sample results show that extending the HAR-RV model to include investor happiness significantly improves the accuracy of forecasts of realized volatility at short- and medium-run forecast horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Bonato & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "A Note on Investor Happiness and the Predictability of Realized Volatility of Gold," Working Papers 202004, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202004
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    Cited by:

    1. Xolani Sibande & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer & Elie Bouri, 2020. "Investor Sentiment and (Anti-)Herding in the Currency Market: Evidence from Twitter Feed Data," Working Papers 202088, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri & Qiang Ji, 2020. "Forecasting Oil Volatility Using a GARCH-MIDAS Approach: The Role of Global Economic Conditions," Working Papers 202051, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer, 2021. "Global Financial Cycle and the Predictability of Oil Market Volatility: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS Model," Working Papers 202121, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "The predictive power of oil price shocks on realized volatility of oil: A note," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Jiawen Luo & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2021. "Forecasting Oil and Gold Volatilities with Sentiment Indicators Under Structural Breaks," Working Papers 202130, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Infectious Diseases, Market Uncertainty and Oil Market Volatility," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(16), pages 1-8, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor Happiness; Gold; Realized Volatility; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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