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Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment and international stock returns: Evidence from linear and nonlinear causality tests

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  • Zhang, Wei
  • Wang, Pengfei
  • Li, Xiao
  • Shen, Dehua

Abstract

With newly emerged daily happiness sentiment (dhs) from Twitter, we find strong evidence that dhs can Granger cause indexes returns in linear causality test, while the opposite direction is more prominent in nonlinear causality test. Besides, dhs and indexes returns exhibit strong nonlinear relationships in American, while dhs cannot Granger cause indexes returns in Middle East and North Africa. Taken together, all these findings indicate interdependencies between online activities and stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Wei & Wang, Pengfei & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2018. "Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment and international stock returns: Evidence from linear and nonlinear causality tests," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 50-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:18:y:2018:i:c:p:50-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2018.01.005
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    2. Bonato, Matteo & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "A note on investor happiness and the predictability of realized volatility of gold," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    3. Matteo Bonato & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Investor Happiness and Predictability of the Realized Volatility of Oil Price," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-11, May.
    4. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Sentiment and Financial Market Connectedness: The Role of Investor Happiness," Working Papers 202022, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Zhang, Tonghui & Yuan, Ying & Wu, Xi, 2020. "Is microblogging data reflected in stock market volatility? Evidence from Sina Weibo," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    6. Kumar, Satish & Rao, Sandeep & Goyal, Kirti & Goyal, Nisha, 2022. "Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance: A bibliometric overview," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    7. Ung, Sze Nie & Gebka, Bartosz & Anderson, Robert D.J., 2023. "Is sentiment the solution to the risk–return puzzle? A (cautionary) note," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    8. Philip S. Morrison & Stephanié Rossouw & Talita Greyling, 2022. "The impact of exogenous shocks on national wellbeing. New Zealanders’ reaction to COVID-19," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 1787-1812, June.
    9. Bouri, Elie & Demirer, Riza & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Financial market connectedness: The role of investors’ happiness," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    10. Văn, Lê & Bảo, Nguyễn Khắc Quốc, 2022. "The relationship between global stock and precious metals under Covid-19 and happiness perspectives," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Li, Xiao, 2020. "When financial literacy meets textual analysis: A conceptual review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    12. Zhang, Zuochao & Zhang, Yongjie & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2018. "The cross-correlations between online sentiment proxies: Evidence from Google Trends and Twitter," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 67-75.
    13. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2020. "Happiness sentiments and the prediction of cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Ping Chen & Yi-Ting Peng, 2021. "Tourism development and happiness: International evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1101-1136, August.
    15. Chen, Wen-Yi & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2022. "Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment, economic policy uncertainty, and stock index fluctuations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
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    18. Dias, Ishanka K. & Fernando, J.M. Ruwani & Fernando, P. Narada D., 2022. "Does investor sentiment predict bitcoin return and volatility? A quantile regression approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Twitter happiness sentiment; Linear and nonlinear causality; International stock returns; Investor sentiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance

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