IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v22y2015i6p499-502.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gasoline price predictability in a border metropolitan economy

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas M. Fullerton
  • Alan Jimenez
  • Yu Liu
  • Adam G. Walke

Abstract

This study examines the predictability of local retail gasoline prices in the El Paso metropolitan economy. Given its location on the border with Mexico, the potential influence of cross-border economic variables on gasoline prices in El Paso is taken into account. The study uses monthly frequency time series data from 2001 to 2013. Because historical consumption data are not available, the error correction econometric model employs a reduced form equation in which gasoline prices are functionally dependent on several explanatory variables. Out-of-sample price simulations are compared against random walk and random walk with drift benchmarks. Results obtained indicate that the econometric approach performs fairly well relative to both benchmarks.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M. Fullerton & Alan Jimenez & Yu Liu & Adam G. Walke, 2015. "Gasoline price predictability in a border metropolitan economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 499-502, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:22:y:2015:i:6:p:499-502
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.952886
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13504851.2014.952886
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13504851.2014.952886?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Banfi, Silvia & Filippini, Massimo & Hunt, Lester C., 2005. "Fuel tourism in border regions: The case of Switzerland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 689-707, September.
    2. Tsuruta, Yoshitaka, 2008. "What affects intranational price dispersion?: The case of Japanese gasoline prices," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 563-584, December.
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    4. Bello, Alejandro & Contín-Pilart, Ignacio, 2012. "Taxes, cost and demand shifters as determinants in the regional gasoline price formation process: Evidence from Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 439-448.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fullerton, Thomas M. & Jiménez, Alan A. & Walke, Adam G., 2015. "An econometric analysis of retail gasoline prices in a border metropolitan economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 450-461.
    2. Arunanondchai, Panit & Senia, Mark C. & Capps, Oral, Jr., 2017. "Can U.S. EIA Retail Gasoline Price Forecasts Be Improved Upon?," Reports 285201, Texas A&M University, Agribusiness, Food, and Consumer Economics Research Center.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fullerton, Thomas M. & Jiménez, Alan A. & Walke, Adam G., 2015. "An econometric analysis of retail gasoline prices in a border metropolitan economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 450-461.
    2. Frederik von Waldow & Heike Link, 2024. "Spatial Competition and Pass-through of Fuel Taxes: Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2086, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Ander Iraizoz & José M Labeaga, 2022. "Incidence and Avoidance Effects of Spatial Fuel Tax Differentials: Evidence using Regional Tax Variation in Spain," Working Papers halshs-03789430, HAL.
    4. Kpodar, Kangni & Imam, Patrick Amir, 2021. "To pass (or not to pass) through international fuel price changes to domestic fuel prices in developing countries: What are the drivers?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. Arezoo Ghazanfari, 2022. "What Drives Petrol Price Dispersion across Australian Cities?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-24, August.
    6. João C. Claudio & Katja Heinisch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2020. "Nowcasting East German GDP growth: a MIDAS approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 29-54, January.
    7. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    8. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2017. "Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1055-1068, September.
    9. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    10. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Xilong Chen & Eric Ghysels, 2011. "News--Good or Bad--and Its Impact on Volatility Predictions over Multiple Horizons," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 46-81, October.
    12. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2023. "Forecast combination in the frequency domain," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2023, Bank of Finland.
    13. Chen, Qitong & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haiqi, 2024. "Time-varying forecast combination for factor-augmented regressions with smooth structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    14. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    15. Cavit Pakel & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard & Robert F. Engle, 2021. "Fitting Vast Dimensional Time-Varying Covariance Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 652-668, July.
    16. Diongue, Abdou Kâ & Guégan, Dominique & Vignal, Bertrand, 2009. "Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 505-510, April.
    17. Bentes, Sonia R. & Menezes, Rui, 2013. "On the predictability of realized volatility using feasible GLS," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 58-66.
    18. Satoh, Eiji & Iwase, Ryusuke & Kamakura, Keita & Sawasato, Shinji & Tominaga, Saki, 2018. "Consumer search costs, geographical concentration, and retail gasoline pricing: Evidence from inland Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-8.
    19. Hayashi, Masayoshi, 2014. "Forecasting welfare caseloads: The case of the Japanese public assistance program," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 105-114.
    20. David Bolder & Shudan Liu, 2007. "Examining Simple Joint Macroeconomic and Term-Structure Models: A Practitioner's Perspective," Staff Working Papers 07-49, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:22:y:2015:i:6:p:499-502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.