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Forecasting the Volatility of the Dow Jones Islamic Stock Market Index: Long Memory vs. Regime Switching

Listed author(s):
  • Adnen Ben Nasr
  • Thomas Lux
  • Ahdi Noomen Ajmi
  • Rangan Gupta

The financial crisis has fueled interest in alternatives to traditional asset classes that might be less affected by large market gyrations and, thus, provide for a less volatile development of a portfolio. One attempt at selecting stocks that are less pr

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Paper provided by Department of Research, Ipag Business School in its series Working Papers with number 2014-236.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2014
Handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-236
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  1. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mensi, Walid & Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Dynamic dependence of the global Islamic equity index with global conventional equity market indices and risk factors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 189-206.
  2. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "The Markov-Switching Multifractal Model of Asset Returns: GMM Estimation and Linear Forecasting of Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 194-210, April.
  3. Calvet, Laurent & Fisher, Adlai, 2001. "Forecasting multifractal volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 27-58, November.
  4. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-268, July.
  5. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2004. "Structural change and long-range dependence in volatility of exchange rates: either, neither or both?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 629-658, December.
  6. Laurent E. Calvet, 2004. "How to Forecast Long-Run Volatility: Regime Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 49-83.
  7. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  8. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  9. Michel Beine & Sebastien Laurent, 2000. "Structural Change and Long Memory in Volatility: New Evidence from Daily Exchange Rates," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0312, Econometric Society.
  10. Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms & Charles S. Bos, 1999. "Long memory and level shifts: Re-analyzing inflation rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 427-449.
  11. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2005. "A Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 365-380, October.
  12. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Lux, Thomas & Kaizoji, Taisei, 2007. "Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo Stock Market: Long memory, fractality and regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1808-1843, June.
  14. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
  15. Baillie, Richard T. & Morana, Claudio, 2009. "Modelling long memory and structural breaks in conditional variances: An adaptive FIGARCH approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1577-1592, August.
  16. Liu, Ruipeng & Di Matteo, T. & Lux, Thomas, 2007. "True and apparent scaling: The proximity of the Markov-switching multifractal model to long-range dependence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 35-42.
  17. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
  18. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. " Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 975-1005, July.
  19. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  20. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  21. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  22. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
  23. Adnen Ben Nasr & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Modelling the volatility of the Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index using a fractionally integrated time-varying GARCH (FITVGARCH) model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(14), pages 993-1004, July.
  24. Pejman Abedifar & Shahid M. Ebrahim & Philip Molyneux & Amine Tarazi, 2015. "Islamic Banking And Finance: Recent Empirical Literature And Directions For Future Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 637-670, 09.
  25. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 280-283, July.
  26. Benoit Mandelbrot & Adlai Fisher & Laurent Calvet, 1997. "A Multifractal Model of Asset Returns," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1164, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  27. Davidson, James, 2004. "Moment and Memory Properties of Linear Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models, and a New Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 16-29, January.
  28. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-234, April.
  29. Adnen Ben Nasr & Mohamed Boutahar & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2010. "Fractionally integrated time varying GARCH model," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 19(3), pages 399-430, August.
  30. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
  31. Martin Martens & Dick van Dijk & Michiel de Pooter, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting S&P 500 Volatility: Long Memory, Structural Breaks and Nonlinearity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-067/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  32. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
  33. Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Mishra, Santosh, 2004. "Forecasting volatility: A reality check based on option pricing, utility function, value-at-risk, and predictive likelihood," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 629-645.
  34. Thomas Lux & Leonardo Morales‐Arias & Cristina Sattarhoff, 2014. "Forecasting Daily Variations of Stock Index Returns with a Multifractal Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 532-541, November.
  35. Brockwell, P. J. & Dahlhaus, R., 2004. "Generalized Levinson-Durbin and Burg algorithms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 129-149.
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