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Energy Consumption, Survey Data and the Prediction of Industrial Production in Italy

Author

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  • Marchetti, D.J.
  • Parigi, G.

Abstract

We investigate the prediction of Italian industrial production. We first specify a model based on electricity consumption; we show that the cubic trend in such a model mostly captures the evolution over time of the electricity coefficient, which can be well approximated by a smooth transition model a la Terasvirta, with no gains in predictive power, though. We also analyze the performance of models based on data of different business surveys.

Suggested Citation

  • Marchetti, D.J. & Parigi, G., 1998. "Energy Consumption, Survey Data and the Prediction of Industrial Production in Italy," Papers 342, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:banita:342
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    2. Bodo, Giorgio & Signorini, Luigi Federico, 1987. "Short-term forecasting of the industrial production index," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 245-259.
    3. Ohtani, Kazuhiro & Kakimoto, Sumio & Abe, Kenzo, 1990. "A gradual switching regression model with a flexible transition path," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 43-48, January.
    4. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
    5. L. G. Godfrey & M. R. Wickens, 1981. "Testing Linear and Log-Linear Regressions for Functional Form," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 487-496.
    6. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    7. Farley, John U. & Hinich, Melvin & McGuire, Timothy W., 1975. "Some comparisons of tests for a shift in the slopes of a multivariate linear time series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 297-318, August.
    8. Winkler, Robert L., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A philosophical basis and some current issues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 605-609.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Monti, 2008. "Forecast with judgment and models," Working Paper Research 153, National Bank of Belgium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ITALY ; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ; ENERGY;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L9 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities

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