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Energy Consumption, Survey Data and the Prediction of Industrial Production in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Marchetti, D.J.
  • Parigi, G.

Abstract

We investigate the prediction of Italian industrial production. We first specify a model based on electricity consumption; we show that the cubic trend in such a model mostly captures the evolution over time of the electricity coefficient, which can be well approximated by a smooth transition model a la Terasvirta, with no gains in predictive power, though. We also analyze the performance of models based on data of different business surveys.

Suggested Citation

  • Marchetti, D.J. & Parigi, G., 1998. "Energy Consumption, Survey Data and the Prediction of Industrial Production in Italy," Papers 342, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:banita:342
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    Cited by:

    1. Carluccio Bianchi & Alessandro Carta & Dean Fantazzini & Maria Elena De Giuli & Mario Maggi, 2010. "A copula-VAR-X approach for industrial production modelling and forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(25), pages 3267-3277.
    2. Guido Bulligan & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012. "Forecasting economic activity with higher frequency targeted predictors," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 847, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Bilge Pekçaglayan, 2021. "Determinants of Industrial Production in Turkey: ARDL Model," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 71(71-2), pages 435-456, December.
    4. Irving Fisher Committee, 2004. "The IFC's contribution to the 54th ISI Session, Berlin, August 2003," IFC Bulletins, Bank for International Settlements, number 17.
    5. Francesca Monti, 2008. "Forecast with judgment and models," Working Paper Research 153, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Bulligan, Guido & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2015. "Forecasting economic activity with targeted predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 188-206.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L9 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities

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