Energy Consumption, Survey Data and the Prediction of Industrial Production in Italy
We investigate the prediction of Italian industrial production. We first specify a model based on electricity consumption; we show that the cubic trend in such a model mostly captures the evolution over time of the electricity coefficient, which can be well approximated by a smooth transition model a la Terasvirta, with no gains in predictive power, though. We also analyze the performance of models based on data of different business surveys.
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|Date of creation:||1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Banca d'Italia-Servizio Studi-Divisione Biblioteca e Pubblicazioni - Via N azionale, 91 -00184 Rome, Italy.|
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