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Proyección Agregada y Desagregada del PIB Chileno con Procedimientos Automatizados de Series de Tiempo

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Medel
  • Marcela Urrutia

Abstract

This paper compares the out-of-sample error of two forecasting methods for Chile’s GDP. The first method forecasts the aggregate GDP, while the second aggregates the forecasts of the supply-side components. As forecasting method we use the automatic model selection contained in the seasonal adjustment program X12-ARIMA version 0.2.10. Our sample includes the information contained in the first data release until 2009.I. For the whole sample, this paper finds no significant difference between both methods, according to tests commonly used in this literature. However, in periods of low GDP volatility the aggregate method performs better in terms of root mean squared error, while the disaggregate approach outperforms the aggregate one in periods of high GDP volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Medel & Marcela Urrutia, 2010. "Proyección Agregada y Desagregada del PIB Chileno con Procedimientos Automatizados de Series de Tiempo," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 577, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:577
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_577.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcus Cobb, 2009. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation From Disaggregate Components," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 545, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, January.
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos A. Medel, 2013. "How informative are in-sample information criteria to forecasting? The case of Chilean GDP," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 50(1), pages 133-161, May.
    2. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchors Away: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine “Good” Monetary Policy," CAEPR Working Papers 2009-021, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.

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