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Consumer Attitudes and Their Forecasting Power for Consumer Spending

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  • MICHELLE L. BARNES
  • GIOVANNI P. OLIVEI

Abstract

The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers is summarized with principal components of consumer attitudes with respect to income and wealth, prices, and interest rates and credit availability. These summary measures contain information beyond that captured by the Index of Consumer Sentiment. The summary measures have forecasting power for aggregate consumption behavior, even when controlling for economic fundamentals. These measures also help to improve significantly upon Survey of Professional Forecasters, Blue Chip Consensus, and Federal Reserve Board's forecasts of consumption and other real activity measures, consistent with their predictive ability conditioned upon a broader set of fundamentals and forecasters’ judgment.

Suggested Citation

  • Michelle L. Barnes & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2017. "Consumer Attitudes and Their Forecasting Power for Consumer Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 1031-1058, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:5:p:1031-1058
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12404
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Geiger & Johann Scharler, 2021. "How Do People Interpret Macroeconomic Shocks? Evidence from U.S. Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 813-843, June.
    2. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Ftiti, Zied & Louhichi, Waël & Tsouknidis, Dimitris, 2023. "Household deposits and consumer sentiment expectations: Evidence from Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Hamid Baghestani & Sehar Fatima, 2021. "Growth in US Durables Spending: Assessing the Impact of Consumer Ability and Willingness to Buy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 55-69, April.
    4. Baghestani, Hamid, 2021. "Predicting growth in US durables spending using consumer durables-buying attitudes," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 327-336.
    5. Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali & Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Poon, Wai Ching & Safiullah, Md, 2023. "Is there a CSI-leverage nexus?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Marie‐Helene Gagnon & Celine Gimet, 2020. "Unconventional economic policies and sentiment: An international assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1544-1591, June.
    7. Clerides, Sofronis & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Lambertides, Neophytos & Tsouknidis, Dimitris, 2022. "What matters for consumer sentiment in the euro area? World crude oil price or retail gasoline price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    8. Simona Malovaná & Martin Hodula & Jan Frait, 2021. "What Does Really Drive Consumer Confidence?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 885-913, June.

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