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Inference from the futures: ranking the noise cancelling accuracy of realized measures

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  • Giorgio Mirone

    (Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

We consider the log-linear relationship between futures contracts and their underlying assets and show that in the classical Brownian semi-martingale (BSM) framework the two series must, by no-arbitrage, have the same integrated variance. We then introduce the concept of noise cancelling and propose a generally applicable methodology to assess the performance of realized measures when the variable of interest is latent, overcoming the problem posed by the lack of a true value for the integrated variance. Using E-mini index futures contracts, we carry out formal testing of several realized measures in the presence of noise. Moreover, a thorough simulation analysis is employed to evaluate the estimators' sensitivity to different price and noise processes, and sampling frequencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Mirone, 2017. "Inference from the futures: ranking the noise cancelling accuracy of realized measures," CREATES Research Papers 2017-24, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2017-24
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    Cited by:

    1. Giorgio Mirone, 2018. "Cross-sectional noise reduction and more efficient estimation of Integrated Variance," CREATES Research Papers 2018-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    realized variance; estimation comparison; noise cancelling; futures; ranking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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