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Une Evaluation des Procédures de Backtesting

  • Christophe Hurlin

    ()

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR6221 - Université d'Orléans)

  • Sessi Tokpavi

    ()

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR6221 - Université d'Orléans)

Dans cet article, nous proposons une démarche originale visant à évaluer la capacité des tests usuels de backtesting à discriminer différentes prévisions de Value at Risk (VaR) ne fournissant pas la même évaluation ex-ante du risque. Nos résultats montrent que, pour un même actif, ces tests conduisent très souvent à ne pas rejeter la validité, au sens de la couverture conditionnelle, de la plupart des six prévisions de VaR étudiées, même si ces dernières sont sensiblement différentes. Autrement dit, toute prévision de VaR a de fortes chances d'être validée par ce type de procédure.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00159846.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00159846
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  1. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69.
  2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
  3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  4. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  5. Jeremy Berkowitz & James O'Brien, 2002. "How Accurate Are Value-at-Risk Models at Commercial Banks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1111, 06.
  6. Matthew Pritsker, 2001. "The hidden dangers of historical simulation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
  8. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Proceedings 512, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  10. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Peter Christoffersen, 2004. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 84-108.
  12. Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-74, October.
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