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A GMM procedure for combining volatility forecasts

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  • Amendola, Alessandra
  • Storti, Giuseppe

Abstract

A novel approach to the combination of volatility forecasts is discussed. The proposed procedure makes use of the generalized method of moments (GMM) for estimating the combination weights. The asymptotic properties of the GMM estimator are derived while its finite sample properties are assessed by means of a simulation study. The results of an application to a time series of daily returns on the S&P500 are presented.

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  • Amendola, Alessandra & Storti, Giuseppe, 2008. "A GMM procedure for combining volatility forecasts," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3047-3060, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2008:i:6:p:3047-3060
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    2. Degiannakis, Stavros, 2018. "Multiple days ahead realized volatility forecasting: Single, combined and average forecasts," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-61.
    3. Borovkova, Svetlana & Permana, Ferry J., 2009. "Implied volatility in oil markets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2022-2039, April.
    4. Alessandra Amendola & Giuseppe Storti, 2009. "Combination of multivariate volatility forecasts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-007, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Ewa Ratuszny, 2015. "Risk Modeling of Commodities using CAViaR Models, the Encompassing Method and the Combined Forecasts," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 15, pages 129-156.
    6. Amendola, Alessandra & Braione, Manuela & Candila, Vincenzo & Storti, Giuseppe, 2020. "A Model Confidence Set approach to the combination of multivariate volatility forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 873-891.

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