IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/manchs/v72y2004i5p626-640.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Non-Linear Error Correction: Evidence for UK Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • David G. McMillan

Abstract

Recent empirical finance research has suggested the potential for series to exhibit non-linear adjustment to equilibrium. This paper examines a variety of such models and compares their performance with the linear alternative. Using short- and long-term UK interest rates we report evidence that a logistic smooth transition error-correction model is best able to characterize the data and to provide superior out-of-sample forecasts over both linear and non-linear alternatives. This model suggests that market dynamics differ depending on whether the deviations from long-run equilibrium are above or below the threshold value. Further, the logistic smooth transition model indicates that agents' actions imply quicker reversion to equilibrium when the long rate exceeds the short rate, and supports a central bank inflation targeting interpretation of the non-linearity. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester, 2004..

Suggested Citation

  • David G. McMillan, 2004. "Non-Linear Error Correction: Evidence for UK Interest Rates," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(5), pages 626-640, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:72:y:2004:i:5:p:626-640
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=manc&volume=72&issue=5&year=2004&part=null
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kessides, Ioannis N, 1990. "Towards a Testable Model of Entry: A Study of the U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 57(226), pages 219-238, May.
    2. Greg Hundley, 2001. "Why Women Earn Less Than Men in Self-Employment," Journal of Labor Research, Transaction Publishers, vol. 22(4), pages 817-829, October.
    3. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & David Joulfaian & Harvey S. Rosen, 1994. "Entrepreneurial Decisions and Liquidity Constraints," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, pages 334-347.
    4. Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Self-Employment and Windfall Gains in Britain: Evidence from Panel Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(272), pages 539-565, November.
    5. Fujii, Edwin T. & Hawley, Clifford B., 1991. "Empirical aspects of self-employment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 323-329, July.
    6. Evans, David S & Leighton, Linda S, 1989. "Some Empirical Aspects of Entrepreneurship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 519-535, June.
    7. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    8. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1998. "What Makes an Entrepreneur?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 26-60, January.
    9. Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Earnings, Independence or Unemployment: Why Become Self-Employed?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 253-266, May.
    10. Cowling, Marc & Mitchell, Peter, 1997. "The Evolution of U.K. Self-Employment: A Study of Government Policy and the Role of the Macroeconomy," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(4), pages 427-442, September.
    11. Bernard F. Lentz & David N. Laband, 1990. "Entrepreneurial Success and Occupational Inheritance among Proprietors," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 23(3), pages 563-579, August.
    12. Robert Carroll & Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Mark Rider & Harvey Rosen, 1996. "Income Taxes and Entrepreneur' Use of Labor," Working Papers 752, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    13. Rees, Hedley & Shah, Anup, 1986. "An Empirical Analysis of Self-employment in the U.K," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 95-108, January.
    14. Cressy, Robert, 1996. "Are Business Startups Debt-Rationed?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1253-1270, September.
    15. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 1978. "On the Size Distribution of Business Firms," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(2), pages 508-523, Autumn.
    16. Lindh, Thomas & Ohlsson, Henry, 1996. "Self-Employment and Windfall Gains: Evidence from the Swedish Lottery," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1515-1526, November.
    17. Burke, Andrew E & FitzRoy, Felix R & Nolan, Michael A, 2000. " When Less Is More: Distinguishing between Entrepreneurial Choice and Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(5), pages 565-587, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maki, Daiki, 2015. "Wild bootstrap testing for cointegration in an ESTAR error correction model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 292-298.
    2. Samuel S Jibao & Niek Schoeman & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2010. "Fiscal Regime Changes and the Sustainability of Fiscal Imbalance in South Africa: A Smooth Transition Error-Correction Approach," Working Papers 201023, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Chan Tze Haw, 2009. "The Real Interest Rate Differential: International Evidence Based On Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 83-94, January.
    4. Liu, Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Chun, 2013. "Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with flexible Fourier stationary test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 52-58.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:72:y:2004:i:5:p:626-640. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/semanuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.