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Non‐Linear Error Correction: Evidence for UK Interest Rates

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  • David G. McMillan

Abstract

Recent empirical finance research has suggested the potential for series to exhibit non‐linear adjustment to equilibrium. This paper examines a variety of such models and compares their performance with the linear alternative. Using short‐ and long‐term UK interest rates we report evidence that a logistic smooth transition error‐correction model is best able to characterize the data and to provide superior out‐of‐sample forecasts over both linear and non‐linear alternatives. This model suggests that market dynamics differ depending on whether the deviations from long‐run equilibrium are above or below the threshold value. Further, the logistic smooth transition model indicates that agents’ actions imply quicker reversion to equilibrium when the long rate exceeds the short rate, and supports a central bank inflation targeting interpretation of the non‐linearity.

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  • David G. McMillan, 2004. "Non‐Linear Error Correction: Evidence for UK Interest Rates," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(5), pages 626-640, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:72:y:2004:i:5:p:626-640
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2004.00413.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2014. "Does the Macroeconomy Predict UK Asset Returns in a Nonlinear Fashion? Comprehensive Out-of-Sample Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(4), pages 510-535, August.
    2. Maki, Daiki, 2015. "Wild bootstrap testing for cointegration in an ESTAR error correction model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 292-298.
    3. Samuel S Jibao & Niek Schoeman & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2010. "Fiscal Regime Changes and the Sustainability of Fiscal Imbalance in South Africa: A Smooth Transition Error-Correction Approach," Working Papers 201023, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Venus Khim‐Sen Liew & Chan Tze Haw, 2009. "The Real Interest Rate Differential: International Evidence Based On Non‐Linear Unit Root Tests," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 83-94, January.
    5. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Forward interest rate premium and asymmetric adjustment: Evidence from 16 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 258-273, April.
    6. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Non-linear interest rate dynamics and forecasting: evidence for US and Australian interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 139-155.
    7. McMillan, David G., 2007. "Bubbles in the dividend-price ratio? Evidence from an asymmetric exponential smooth-transition model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 787-804, March.
    8. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
    9. Liu, Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Chun, 2013. "Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with flexible Fourier stationary test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 52-58.

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