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Transnational Terrorism in the Post-Cold War Era

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  • Enders, Walter
  • Sandler, Todd

Abstract

The paper uncovers evidence that the end ofthe Cold War has provided a dividend In terms of reduced transnational terrorism. Significant short-run and long-run effects are quantified with time series analysis to be concentrated In reduced bombings and hostage-taking Incidents. Presumably, this dividend Is the result of less state-sponsorship of terrorism by the Commonwealth of Independent States and other states, as well as the result of measures taken by Industrial states to thwart terrorist attacks. A dividend does not appear until the last three quarters of 1994, at which times moves were well underway to Integrate Eastern Europe with the West. Moreover, prior to this period, significant efforts had been made among Western nations to augment cooperative efforts to curb terrorism and to bring terrorists to justice. Using data for 1970 through mid-1996, we also examine trends and cycles In terrorist modes of attack. There Is virtually no evidence of an upward trend In transnational terrorism, contrary to media characterizations. All types of terrorist incidents display cycles whose duration lengthens with logistical complexity. Any change In these cycles in the post-Cold War era is concentrated in the high-frequency or short-lived cycles.
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  • Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1999. "Transnational Terrorism in the Post-Cold War Era," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1532, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:1532
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 235-261, December.
    2. Sandler, Todd & Enders, Walter, 2004. "An economic perspective on transnational terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-316, June.
    3. Dreher, Axel & Fischer, Justina AV, 2007. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? An empirical test," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 686, Stockholm School of Economics.
    4. repec:eee:touman:v:57:y:2016:i:c:p:234-244 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, "undated". "Terrorism: Deterrence May Backfire," IEW - Working Papers 136, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    6. José García-Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and Terrorism: The Long Lasting Effect of Seismic Shocks," Working Papers 1020, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    7. Todd Sandler & James C. Murdoch, 2000. "On sharing NATO defence burdens in the 1990s and beyond," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 297-327, September.
    8. Axel Dreher & Justina Fischer, 2008. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? System stability versus government efficiency: an empirical test," TWI Research Paper Series 41, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    9. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "Terrorism in the Worlds of Welfare Capitalism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(6), pages 902-939, December.
    10. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and terrorism: the long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Economics Working Papers 1599, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2014. "An empirical analysis of alternative ways that terrorist groups end," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 25-44, July.
    12. Todd Sandler, 2016. "Political violence: an introduction," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 161-170, December.
    13. Arce, Daniel G. & Sandler, Todd, 2009. "Fitting in: Group effects and the evolution of fundamentalism," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 739-757, September.
    14. Selami Sezgin & Sennur Sezgin, 2011. "Economics of Conflict: Turkey’s Experience," Chapters,in: Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 15 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Axel Dreher & Justina A.V. Fischer, 2008. "Decentralization as a Disincentive for Transnational Terror?," KOF Working papers 08-185, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    16. Axel Dreher & Justina A. V. Fischer, 2010. "Government Decentralization As A Disincentive For Transnational Terror? An Empirical Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(4), pages 981-1002, November.

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