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Transnational Terrorism in the Post-Cold War Era

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  • Enders, Walter
  • Sandler, Todd

Abstract

The paper uncovers evidence that the end ofthe Cold War has provided a dividend In terms of reduced transnational terrorism. Significant short-run and long-run effects are quantified with time series analysis to be concentrated In reduced bombings and hostage-taking Incidents. Presumably, this dividend Is the result of less state-sponsorship of terrorism by the Commonwealth of Independent States and other states, as well as the result of measures taken by Industrial states to thwart terrorist attacks. A dividend does not appear until the last three quarters of 1994, at which times moves were well underway to Integrate Eastern Europe with the West. Moreover, prior to this period, significant efforts had been made among Western nations to augment cooperative efforts to curb terrorism and to bring terrorists to justice. Using data for 1970 through mid-1996, we also examine trends and cycles In terrorist modes of attack. There Is virtually no evidence of an upward trend In transnational terrorism, contrary to media characterizations. All types of terrorist incidents display cycles whose duration lengthens with logistical complexity. Any change In these cycles in the post-Cold War era is concentrated in the high-frequency or short-lived cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1998. "Transnational Terrorism in the Post-Cold War Era," ISU General Staff Papers 199804010800001308, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:199804010800001308
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    1. Siqueira, Kevin & Arce, Daniel, 2020. "Terrorist training: Onsite or via the Internet?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 235-261, December.
    3. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, "undated". "Terrorism: Deterrence May Backfire," IEW - Working Papers 136, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    4. José García-Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and Terrorism: The Long Lasting Effect of Seismic Shocks," Working Papers 1020, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    5. Sandler, Todd & Enders, Walter, 2004. "An economic perspective on transnational terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-316, June.
    6. Todd Sandler & James C. Murdoch, 2000. "On sharing NATO defence burdens in the 1990s and beyond," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 297-327, September.
    7. Axel Dreher & Justina Fischer, 2008. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? System stability versus government efficiency: an empirical test," TWI Research Paper Series 41, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    8. Montalvo, José G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2019. "Earthquakes and terrorism: The long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 541-561.
    9. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "Terrorism in the Worlds of Welfare Capitalism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(6), pages 902-939, December.
    10. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and terrorism: the long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Economics Working Papers 1599, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2014. "An empirical analysis of alternative ways that terrorist groups end," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 25-44, July.
    12. Todd Sandler, 2016. "Political violence: an introduction," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 161-170, December.
    13. Arce, Daniel G. & Sandler, Todd, 2009. "Fitting in: Group effects and the evolution of fundamentalism," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 739-757, September.
    14. Selami Sezgin & Sennur Sezgin, 2011. "Economics of Conflict: Turkey’s Experience," Chapters, in: Derek L. Braddon & Keith Hartley (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 15, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Dreher, Axel & Fischer, Justina AV, 2007. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? An empirical test," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 686, Stockholm School of Economics.
    16. Axel Dreher & Justina A.V. Fischer, 2008. "Decentralization as a Disincentive for Transnational Terror?," KOF Working papers 08-185, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    17. Jülide Yildirim & Nadir Öcal, 2013. "Analysing The Determinants Of Terrorism In Turkey Using Geographically Weighted Regression," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 195-209, June.
    18. Kapuściński, Grzegorz & Richards, Barry, 2016. "News framing effects on destination risk perception," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 234-244.
    19. Jacques Fontanel, 2004. "Le coût du terrorisme," Post-Print hal-02080669, HAL.
    20. Axel Dreher & Justina A.V. Fischer, 2009. "Government Decentralization as a Disincentive for Transnational Terror? An Empirical Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2699, CESifo.
    21. Christopher Gelpi & Nazli Avdan, 2018. "Democracies at risk? A forecasting analysis of regime type and the risk of terrorist attack," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(1), pages 18-42, January.
    22. Axel Dreher & Justina A. V. Fischer, 2010. "Government Decentralization As A Disincentive For Transnational Terror? An Empirical Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(4), pages 981-1002, November.
    23. Ian Bellany, 2007. "Terrorism: Facts From Figures," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 101-112.

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