Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool
This paper analyses the forecasting power of weekly futures prices at Nord Pool. The forecasting power of futures prices is compared to an ARIMAX model of the spot price. The time series model contains lagged external variables such as: temperature, precipitation, reservoir levels and the basis (futures price less the spot price); and generally reflects the typical seasonal patterns in weekly spot prices. Results show that the time series model forecasts significantly beat futures prices when using the Diebold and Mariano (1995) test. Furthermore, the average forecasting error of futures prices reveals that they are significantly above the settlement spot price at the ‘delivery week’ and their size increases as the time to maturity increases. Those agents taking positions in weekly futures contracts at Nord Pool might find the estimated ARIMAX model useful for improving their expectation formation process for the underlying spot price.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Corso Magenta, 63 - 20123 Milan|
Web page: http://www.feem.it/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael Hoel & Finn R. Førsund, 2004.
"Properties of a Non-Competitive Electricity Market Dominated by Hydroelectric Power,"
2004.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Førsund, Finn R. & Hoel, Michael, 2004. "Properties of a non-competitive electricity market dominated by hydroelectric power," Memorandum 07/2004, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011.
"Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
- Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Juan Ignacio & Escribano, Álvaro & Villaplana, Pablo, 2002. "Modeling electricity prices: international evidence," UC3M Working papers. Economics we022708, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-67.
- Peirson, John & Henley, Andrew, 1994. "Electricity load and temperature : Issues in dynamic specification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 235-243, October.
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- M. Angeles Carnero & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2003.
"Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
03-071/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Marius Ooms & M. Angeles Carnero & Siem Jan Koopman, 2004. "Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA models for daily electricity spot prices," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 158, Econometric Society.
- Terry Robinson & Andrzej Baniak, 2002. "The volatility of prices in the English and Welsh electricity pool," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1487-1495.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
- Avsar, S Gulay & Goss, Barry A, 2001. "Forecast Errors and Efficiency in the US Electricity Futures Market," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 479-99, December.
- Henley, Andrew & Peirson, John, 1998. "Residential energy demand and the interaction of price and temperature: British experimental evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 157-171, April.
- Goto, Mika & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets," Working Paper Series 2004-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Harrison Hong, 2000. "A Model of Returns and Trading in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 959-988, 04.
- W. David Walls, 1999. "Volatility, volume and maturity in electricity futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 283-287.
- Sailor, David J. & Muñoz, J.Ricardo, 1997. "Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A.—Methodology and results for eight states," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 987-998.
- Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
- Moulton, Jonathan S., 2005. "California electricity futures: the NYMEX experience," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 181-194, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.