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Can the market forecast the weather better than meteorologists?

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  • Ritter, Matthias

Abstract

Many companies depend on weather conditions, so they require reliable weather forecasts for production planning or risk hedging. In this article, we propose a new way of gaining weather forecasts by exploiting the forward-looking information included in the market prices of weather derivatives traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). For this purpose, the CME futures prices of two monthly temperature indices relevant for the energy sector are compared with index forecasts derived from meteorological temperature forecasts. It turns out that the market prices generally outperform the meteorological forecasts in predicting the outcome of the monthly index. Hence, companies whose profit strongly depends on these indices, such as energy companies, can profit from this additional information source about future weather.

Suggested Citation

  • Ritter, Matthias, 2012. "Can the market forecast the weather better than meteorologists?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-067, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2012-067
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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