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Assessing the influence of spot price predictability on electricity futures hedging

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Listed author(s):
  • Torro, Hipolit

Abstract

A common feature of energy prices is that spot price changes are partially predictable due to weather and demand seasonalities. This paper follows the Ederington and Salas (2008) framework and considers the expected change in spot prices when minimum variance hedge ratios are computed. The poor effectiveness of hedging strategies obtained in previous studies on electricity was because the standard hedging approach underestimates the effectiveness of hedging. In the empirical study made in this paper, weekly spot price risk is hedged with weekly futures in the Nord Pool electricity market. In this case, the optimal selection of the futures contract may produce risk reductions whose values vary between 60% and 80% – depending on the hedging duration (one to three weeks) and the analysed sub-period (in-sample and out-of-sample sub-periods).

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18892.

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Date of creation: 31 Mar 2009
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18892
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Keywords: electricity markets; futures; hedging ratio; electricity price risk;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
  • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
  • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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  1. Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius & Carnero, M. Angeles, 2007. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMAGARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 16-27, March.
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  16. Henry, Olan T & Sharma, John, 1999. "Asymmetric Conditional Volatility and Firm Size: Evidence from Australian Equity Portfolios," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 393-406, December.
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  18. Hipòlit Torró & Julio Lucia, 2008. "Short-term electricity futures prices: Evidence on the time-varying risk premium," Working Papers. Serie EC 2008-08, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  19. H. N. E. BystrOm, 2003. "The hedging performance of electricity futures on the Nordic power exchange," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 1-11.
  20. Lien, Donald & Tse, Y K, 2002. " Some Recent Developments in Futures Hedging," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 357-396, July.
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Cited by:

  1. Debbie Dupuis, Geneviève Gauthier, and Fréderic Godin, 2016. "Short-term Hedging for an Electricity Retailer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).

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