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Minimum variance hedging when spot price changes are partially predictable

  • Ederington, Louis H.
  • Salas, Jesus M.
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    In many markets, changes in the spot price are partially predictable. We show that when this is the case: (1) although unbiased, traditional regression estimates of the minimum variance hedge ratio are inefficient, (2) estimates of the riskiness of both hedged and unhedged positions are biased upward, and (3) estimates of the percentage risk reduction achievable through hedging are biased downward. For natural gas cross hedges, we find that both the inefficiency and bias are substantial. We further find that incorporating the expected change in the spot price, as measured by the futures-spot price spread at the beginning of the hedge, into the regression results in a substantial increase in efficiency and reduction in the bias.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 5 (May)
    Pages: 654-663

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:5:p:654-663
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    1. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-70, March.
    2. P. V. Viswanath, 1993. "Efficient use of information, convergence adjustments, and regression estimates of hedge ratios," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 43-53, 02.
    3. Lien, Donald & Tse, Y K, 2002. " Some Recent Developments in Futures Hedging," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 357-96, July.
    4. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
    5. Hilliard, Jimmy E, 1984. " Hedging Interest Rate Risk with Futures Portfolios under Term Structure Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1547-70, December.
    6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
    7. Donald Lien & Y. K. Tse & Albert Tsui, 2002. "Evaluating the hedging performance of the constant-correlation GARCH model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 791-798.
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