IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Minimum variance hedging when spot price changes are partially predictable

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Ederington, Louis H.
  • Salas, Jesus M.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In many markets, changes in the spot price are partially predictable. We show that when this is the case: (1) although unbiased, traditional regression estimates of the minimum variance hedge ratio are inefficient, (2) estimates of the riskiness of both hedged and unhedged positions are biased upward, and (3) estimates of the percentage risk reduction achievable through hedging are biased downward. For natural gas cross hedges, we find that both the inefficiency and bias are substantial. We further find that incorporating the expected change in the spot price, as measured by the futures-spot price spread at the beginning of the hedge, into the regression results in a substantial increase in efficiency and reduction in the bias.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(07)00211-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 5 (May)
    Pages: 654-663

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:5:p:654-663
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Keywords:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window


    1. Donald Lien & Y. K. Tse & Albert Tsui, 2002. "Evaluating the hedging performance of the constant-correlation GARCH model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 791-798.
    2. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
    3. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    4. P. V. Viswanath, 1993. "Efficient use of information, convergence adjustments, and regression estimates of hedge ratios," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 43-53, 02.
    5. Lien, Donald & Tse, Y K, 2002. " Some Recent Developments in Futures Hedging," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 357-396, July.
    6. Hilliard, Jimmy E, 1984. " Hedging Interest Rate Risk with Futures Portfolios under Term Structure Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1547-1570, December.
    7. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    as
    in new window


    Cited by:

    1. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2015. "European natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-168.
    2. Fu, Junhui, 2014. "Multi-objective hedging model with the third central moment and the capital budget," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 213-219.
    3. Zanotti, Giovanna & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Geranio, Manuela, 2010. "Hedging with futures: Efficacy of GARCH correlation models to European electricity markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 135-148, April.
    4. Nicolau, Mihaela & Palomba, Giulio, 2015. "Dynamic relationships between spot and futures prices. The case of energy and gold commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 130-143.
    5. Rozaimah Zainudin & Roselee Shah Shaharudin, 2011. "Multi Mean Garch Approach to Evaluating Hedging Performance in the Crude Palm Oil Futures Market," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 7(1), pages 111-130.
    6. Mihaela NICOLAU & Giulio PALOMBA & Ilaria TRAINI, 2013. "Are Futures Prices Influenced by Spot;Prices or Vice-versa? An Analysis of Crude;Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Markets," Working Papers 394, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    7. Caporin, Massimiliano, 2013. "Equity and CDS sector indices: Dynamic models and risk hedging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 261-275.
    8. Torro, Hipolit, 2009. "Assessing the influence of spot price predictability on electricity futures hedging," MPRA Paper 18892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Ramazan Gencay, 2012. "Commodity futures hedging, risk aversion and the hedging horizon," Working Papers 201218, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    10. Lee, Hsiang-Tai, 2010. "Regime switching correlation hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2728-2741, November.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Access and download statistics

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:5:p:654-663. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.