IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/isacfm/v32y2025i1ne70002.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can Deep Learning Models Enhance the Accuracy of Agricultural Price Forecasting? Insights From India

Author

Listed:
  • Ranjit Kumar Paul
  • Md Yeasin
  • C. Tamilselvi
  • A. K. Paul
  • Purushottam Sharma
  • Pratap S. Birthal

Abstract

Forecasting agricultural commodity prices has been a long‐standing challenge for researchers and policymakers. The diverse behaviors exhibited by price of different commodities, ranging from the high volatility, nonlinearity, and complexity of vegetables to the lower volatility and linear patterns of cereals. This different pattern necessitates the use of data‐driven models to more precisely capture this complex behavior. This study aims to examine the efficiency of deep learning models in handling various types of price datasets. Three deep learning models, namely, gated recurrent unit (GRU), long short‐term memory (LSTM), and recurrent neural network (RNN), are employed and compared against benchmark models including random walk with drift, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural networks (ANN), and support vector regression (SVR). The monthly wholesale price data during January 2010 to December 2022 for 19 agricultural commodities across 143 markets in India have been utilized to illustrate the performance of models. Empirical comparison has been carried out by using different accuracy measures. The predictive accuracy is the highest for less‐volatile crops such as cereals and pulses, while it is comparatively lower for crops with high‐volatility like vegetables. The significant difference in prediction accuracy of different models has also been investigated with the help of Diebold Mariano test and its multivariate version. The study concluded that deep learning techniques outperformed machine learning and stochastic models across a wide range of commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Ranjit Kumar Paul & Md Yeasin & C. Tamilselvi & A. K. Paul & Purushottam Sharma & Pratap S. Birthal, 2025. "Can Deep Learning Models Enhance the Accuracy of Agricultural Price Forecasting? Insights From India," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:isacfm:v:32:y:2025:i:1:n:e70002
    DOI: 10.1002/isaf.70002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/isaf.70002
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/isaf.70002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mariano, Roberto S. & Preve, Daniel, 2012. "Statistical tests for multiple forecast comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 123-130.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    3. Wei Bao & Jun Yue & Yulei Rao, 2017. "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Rakshit, Debopam & Paul, Ranjit Kumar & Panwar, Sanjeev, 2021. "Asymmetric Price Volatility of Onion in India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), June.
    5. Paul, R.K., 2014. "Forecasting Wholesale Price of Pigeon Pea Using Long Memory Time-Series Models," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 27(2).
    6. Xiaojie Xu, 2020. "Corn Cash Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1297-1320, August.
    7. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    8. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    9. Doucoure, Boubacar & Agbossou, Kodjo & Cardenas, Alben, 2016. "Time series prediction using artificial wavelet neural network and multi-resolution analysis: Application to wind speed data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 202-211.
    10. Tay, Francis E. H. & Cao, Lijuan, 2001. "Application of support vector machines in financial time series forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 309-317, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2016. "Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain’s regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 341-357, August.
    2. Daniel Buncic, 2012. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 399-426, August.
    3. Marian Vavra, 2015. "On a Bootstrap Test for Forecast Evaluations," Working and Discussion Papers WP 5/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    4. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Manuel González-Gómez & María Soledad Otero-Giráldez, 2018. "Forecasting International Tourism Demand Using a Non-Linear Autoregressive Neural Network and Genetic Programming," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Bingzi Jin & Xiaojie Xu, 2025. "Machine learning price index forecasts of flat steel products," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 38(1), pages 97-117, March.
    6. Sergio Consoli & Luca Tiozzo Pezzoli & Elisa Tosetti, 2022. "Neural forecasting of the Italian sovereign bond market with economic news," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(S2), pages 197-224, December.
    7. Viviana Fernandez, 2008. "Traditional versus novel forecasting techniques: how much do we gain?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 637-648.
    8. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Commodity price forecasting via neural networks for coffee, corn, cotton, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar, and wheat," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 169-181, July.
    9. Christos Katris & Manolis G. Kavussanos, 2021. "Time series forecasting methods for the Baltic dry index," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1540-1565, December.
    10. Sermpinis, Georgios & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Dunis, Christian, 2014. "Stochastic and genetic neural network combinations in trading and hybrid time-varying leverage effects," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 21-54.
    11. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Forecasting the total market value of a shares traded in the Shenzhen stock exchange via the neural network," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1266-1279.
    12. Konstantin Kuck & Karsten Schweikert, 2021. "Forecasting Baden‐Württemberg's GDP growth: MIDAS regressions versus dynamic mixed‐frequency factor models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 861-882, August.
    13. Kruse, Robinson & Leschinski, Christian & Will, Michael, 2016. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy under Long Memory - With an Application to Volatility Forecasting," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-571, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    14. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    15. Giovanni Ballarin & Jacopo Capra & Petros Dellaportas, 2025. "Multi-Horizon Echo State Network Prediction of Intraday Stock Returns," Papers 2504.19623, arXiv.org.
    16. UÄŸur Åžener & Salvatore Joseph Terregrossa, 2024. "A Transcendental LASSO Function for Combining Machine Learning and Statistical Model Forecasts," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(3), pages 21582440241, August.
    17. Charalampos Stasinakis & Georgios Sermpinis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Andreas Karathanasopoulos, 2016. "Forecasting US Unemployment with Radial Basis Neural Networks, Kalman Filters and Support Vector Regressions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 569-587, April.
    18. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    19. Apostolos Ampountolas, 2021. "Modeling and Forecasting Daily Hotel Demand: A Comparison Based on SARIMAX, Neural Networks, and GARCH Models," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-16, August.
    20. Jan G. De Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:isacfm:v:32:y:2025:i:1:n:e70002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1099-1174/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.