IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v257y2022ics036054422201653x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Developing a wind power forecasting system based on deep learning with attention mechanism

Author

Listed:
  • Tian, Chaonan
  • Niu, Tong
  • Wei, Wei

Abstract

Large-scale wind power grid integration is challenging, requiring accurate and stable wind power forecasting to reduce operational risk and improve the scheduling efficiency of the grid. Previous studies have emphasized data preprocessing and parameter optimization. Studies on feature mining for the input layer, particularly the hidden layer, are limited, hindering further forecasting accuracy and stability improvements. To address this gap, a novel wind power forecasting system consisting of feature decomposition, self-attention, forecasting, optimization, and performance evaluation modules, is developed in this study. The feature decomposition module is used to remove superfluous noise components inherent in wind power data. A dual-stage self-attention mechanism is proposed in the self-attention module to determine the importance of driving features in the input and hidden layers, rather than focusing on all f/eatures equally. A deep learning model is used with the optimization module, built into the forecasting module. A performance evaluation module is constructed to provide a synthetical evaluation of the forecasting system. Numerical experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the system and demonstrate its superiority.

Suggested Citation

  • Tian, Chaonan & Niu, Tong & Wei, Wei, 2022. "Developing a wind power forecasting system based on deep learning with attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:257:y:2022:i:c:s036054422201653x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124750
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422201653X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124750?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Du, Pei & Wang, Jianzhou & Yang, Wendong & Niu, Tong, 2018. "Multi-step ahead forecasting in electrical power system using a hybrid forecasting system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 533-550.
    2. Nie, Ying & Liang, Ni & Wang, Jianzhou, 2021. "Ultra-short-term wind-speed bi-forecasting system via artificial intelligence and a double-forecasting scheme," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    3. Giannaros, Theodore M. & Melas, Dimitrios & Ziomas, Ioannis, 2017. "Performance evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for assessing wind resource in Greece," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(PA), pages 190-198.
    4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    5. Kavasseri, Rajesh G. & Seetharaman, Krithika, 2009. "Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1388-1393.
    6. Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Wang, Yimei & Feng, Shuanglei, 2015. "Reviews on uncertainty analysis of wind power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1322-1330.
    7. Zhao, Jing & Guo, Zhen-Hai & Su, Zhong-Yue & Zhao, Zhi-Yuan & Xiao, Xia & Liu, Feng, 2016. "An improved multi-step forecasting model based on WRF ensembles and creative fuzzy systems for wind speed," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 808-826.
    8. Acikgoz, Hakan & Budak, Umit & Korkmaz, Deniz & Yildiz, Ceyhun, 2021. "WSFNet: An efficient wind speed forecasting model using channel attention-based densely connected convolutional neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    9. Tim Hill & Marcus O'Connor & William Remus, 1996. "Neural Network Models for Time Series Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(7), pages 1082-1092, July.
    10. Duarte Jacondino, William & Nascimento, Ana Lucia da Silva & Calvetti, Leonardo & Fisch, Gilberto & Augustus Assis Beneti, Cesar & da Paz, Sheila Radman, 2021. "Hourly day-ahead wind power forecasting at two wind farms in northeast Brazil using WRF model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    11. Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai & Yang, Wendong & Du, Pei, 2018. "An analysis-forecast system for uncertainty modeling of wind speed: A case study of large-scale wind farms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 492-512.
    12. Zhang, Shuai & Chen, Yong & Xiao, Jiuhong & Zhang, Wenyu & Feng, Ruijun, 2021. "Hybrid wind speed forecasting model based on multivariate data secondary decomposition approach and deep learning algorithm with attention mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 688-704.
    13. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    14. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2007. "Wind speed forecasting in the South Coast of Oaxaca, México," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2116-2128.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bashir, Hassan & Sibtain, Muhammad & Hanay, Özge & Azam, Muhammad Imran & Qurat-ul-Ain, & Saleem, Snoober, 2023. "Decomposition and Harris hawks optimized multivariate wind speed forecasting utilizing sequence2sequence-based spatiotemporal attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    2. Hu, Yue & Liu, Hanjing & Wu, Senzhen & Zhao, Yuan & Wang, Zhijin & Liu, Xiufeng, 2024. "Temporal collaborative attention for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    3. Zhao, Beizhen & He, Xin & Ran, Shaolin & Zhang, Yong & Cheng, Cheng, 2024. "Spatial correlation learning based on graph neural network for medium-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    4. Liu, Chenyu & Zhang, Xuemin & Mei, Shengwei & Zhou, Qingyu & Fan, Hang, 2023. "Series-wise attention network for wind power forecasting considering temporal lag of numerical weather prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    5. Oliveira Santos, Victor & Costa Rocha, Paulo Alexandre & Scott, John & Van Griensven Thé, Jesse & Gharabaghi, Bahram, 2023. "Spatiotemporal analysis of bidimensional wind speed forecasting: Development and thorough assessment of LSTM and ensemble graph neural networks on the Dutch database," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    6. Liu, Ling & Wang, Jujie & Li, Jianping & Wei, Lu, 2023. "Dual-meta pool method for wind farm power forecasting with small sample data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    7. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Gao, Tian & Wang, Keke & Sun, Lijie & Li, Mingyu & Xu, Xiaomin, 2023. "A novel framework for ultra-short-term interval wind power prediction based on RF-WOA-VMD and BiGRU optimized by the attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Wang, Xiaodi & Hao, Yan & Yang, Wendong, 2024. "Novel wind power ensemble forecasting system based on mixed-frequency modeling and interpretable base model selection strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    9. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2023. "Multivariate wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective feature selection approach and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    10. Abou Houran, Mohamad & Salman Bukhari, Syed M. & Zafar, Muhammad Hamza & Mansoor, Majad & Chen, Wenjie, 2023. "COA-CNN-LSTM: Coati optimization algorithm-based hybrid deep learning model for PV/wind power forecasting in smart grid applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    11. Tang, Yugui & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2024. "A privacy-preserving framework integrating federated learning and transfer learning for wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    12. Cao, Wangbin & Wang, Guangxing & Liang, Xiaolin & Hu, Zhengwei, 2024. "A STAM-LSTM model for wind power prediction with feature selection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Min & Yang, Yi & He, Zhaoshuang & Guo, Xinbo & Zhang, Ruisheng & Huang, Bingqing, 2023. "A wind speed forecasting model based on multi-objective algorithm and interpretability learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    2. Hu, Yue & Liu, Hanjing & Wu, Senzhen & Zhao, Yuan & Wang, Zhijin & Liu, Xiufeng, 2024. "Temporal collaborative attention for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    3. Yang, Wendong & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Du, Pei, 2019. "A hybrid forecasting system based on a dual decomposition strategy and multi-objective optimization for electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1205-1225.
    4. Ana Lagos & Joaquín E. Caicedo & Gustavo Coria & Andrés Romero Quete & Maximiliano Martínez & Gastón Suvire & Jesús Riquelme, 2022. "State-of-the-Art Using Bibliometric Analysis of Wind-Speed and -Power Forecasting Methods Applied in Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-40, September.
    5. Song, Jingjing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A novel combined model based on advanced optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 643-658.
    6. Niu, Tong & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Kequan & Du, Pei, 2018. "Multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting based on optimal feature selection and a modified bat algorithm with the cognition strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 213-229.
    7. Wang, Jianzhou & Wang, Shuai & Zeng, Bo & Lu, Haiyan, 2022. "A novel ensemble probabilistic forecasting system for uncertainty in wind speed," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    8. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied in wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 87-100.
    9. Wen, Songkang & Li, Yanting & Su, Yan, 2022. "A new hybrid model for power forecasting of a wind farm using spatial–temporal correlations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 155-168.
    10. Tian, Chengshi & Hao, Yan & Hu, Jianming, 2018. "A novel wind speed forecasting system based on hybrid data preprocessing and multi-objective optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 301-319.
    11. Du, Pei & Yang, Dongchuan & Li, Yanzhao & Wang, Jianzhou, 2024. "An innovative interpretable combined learning model for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    12. Yan, Jie & Möhrlen, Corinna & Göçmen, Tuhfe & Kelly, Mark & Wessel, Arne & Giebel, Gregor, 2022. "Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    13. Jiang, Ping & Wang, Biao & Li, Hongmin & Lu, Haiyan, 2019. "Modeling for chaotic time series based on linear and nonlinear framework: Application to wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 468-482.
    14. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    15. Parri, Srihari & Teeparthi, Kiran & Kosana, Vishalteja, 2023. "A hybrid VMD based contextual feature representation approach for wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    16. Wang, Jian & Yang, Zhongshan, 2021. "Ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting using an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1418-1435.
    17. Ma, Zhengjing & Mei, Gang, 2022. "A hybrid attention-based deep learning approach for wind power prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    18. Niu, Dongxiao & Sun, Lijie & Yu, Min & Wang, Keke, 2022. "Point and interval forecasting of ultra-short-term wind power based on a data-driven method and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    19. Zhang, Kequan & Qu, Zongxi & Dong, Yunxuan & Lu, Haiyan & Leng, Wennan & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Wenyu, 2019. "Research on a combined model based on linear and nonlinear features - A case study of wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 814-830.
    20. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:257:y:2022:i:c:s036054422201653x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.