IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v336y2023ics0306261923001794.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Series-wise attention network for wind power forecasting considering temporal lag of numerical weather prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Chenyu
  • Zhang, Xuemin
  • Mei, Shengwei
  • Zhou, Qingyu
  • Fan, Hang

Abstract

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), which provides approximate weather information in the next few days, is an essential feature in wind power forecasting (WPF). However, the forecasted wind speed in NWP (NWPWS) shows temporal lag compared to the actual wind speed. And the time-varying nature of the temporal lag challenges the WPF methods on selecting the NWP temporal features within valid time windows. To this end, this paper first summarizes the characteristics of the temporal lag and finds the weak inertia property within a few hours. Consequently, a series-wise mechanism, temporal lag attention (TLA), is proposed to extract valid NWP information for the ultra-short-term WPF by considering the temporal lag’s interference. Three fundamental parts included in TLA, Block-Sparse Attention Range, Lag Recognition, and Feature Fusion, are conducted sequentially. Block-Sparse Attention Range firstly screens out the critical range from the wide distribution of the temporal lag to simplify the subsequent calculation; Lag Recognition real-timely compares the series-wise similarity between actual wind speed and NWPWS time series to determine the top-k most likely temporal lags with their probability; Feature Fusion finally generates the lag-fixed weighted NWPWS as the valid NWP information. TLA has good scalability and can be integrated into the matured WPF model as the feature processing module. Real-world cases verify the accuracy improvement by integrating TLA into a modified encoder–decoder model (MED). Compared to the common point-wise attention mechanism, TLA can mitigate the negative influence of NWPWS temporal lag on WPF more effectively. Meanwhile, the sparse attention range is also proven to benefit the higher WPF accuracy and lower training cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Chenyu & Zhang, Xuemin & Mei, Shengwei & Zhou, Qingyu & Fan, Hang, 2023. "Series-wise attention network for wind power forecasting considering temporal lag of numerical weather prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:336:y:2023:i:c:s0306261923001794
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120815
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261923001794
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120815?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J. & Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo & Monteiro, Cláudio & Sousa, João & Bessa, Ricardo, 2009. "Comparison of two new short-term wind-power forecasting systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1848-1854.
    2. Al-Yahyai, Sultan & Charabi, Yassine & Gastli, Adel, 2010. "Review of the use of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models for wind energy assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 3192-3198, December.
    3. Niu, Zhewen & Yu, Zeyuan & Tang, Wenhu & Wu, Qinghua & Reformat, Marek, 2020. "Wind power forecasting using attention-based gated recurrent unit network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. Li, Chaoshun & Xiao, Zhengguang & Xia, Xin & Zou, Wen & Zhang, Chu, 2018. "A hybrid model based on synchronous optimisation for multi-step short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 131-144.
    5. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    6. Zhao, Yongning & Ye, Lin & Li, Zhi & Song, Xuri & Lang, Yansheng & Su, Jian, 2016. "A novel bidirectional mechanism based on time series model for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 793-803.
    7. Salinas, David & Flunkert, Valentin & Gasthaus, Jan & Januschowski, Tim, 2020. "DeepAR: Probabilistic forecasting with autoregressive recurrent networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1181-1191.
    8. Wu, Binrong & Wang, Lin & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2022. "Interpretable wind speed prediction with multivariate time series and temporal fusion transformers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    9. Tian, Chaonan & Niu, Tong & Wei, Wei, 2022. "Developing a wind power forecasting system based on deep learning with attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    10. Wang, Han & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Jie & Li, Li, 2019. "Sequence transfer correction algorithm for numerical weather prediction wind speed and its application in a wind power forecasting system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 1-10.
    11. Dupré, Aurore & Drobinski, Philippe & Alonzo, Bastien & Badosa, Jordi & Briard, Christian & Plougonven, Riwal, 2020. "Sub-hourly forecasting of wind speed and wind energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 2373-2379.
    12. Peng, Xiaosheng & Wang, Hongyu & Lang, Jianxun & Li, Wenze & Xu, Qiyou & Zhang, Zuowei & Cai, Tao & Duan, Shanxu & Liu, Fangjie & Li, Chaoshun, 2021. "EALSTM-QR: Interval wind-power prediction model based on numerical weather prediction and deep learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    13. Zhang, Yu & Li, Yanting & Zhang, Guangyao, 2020. "Short-term wind power forecasting approach based on Seq2Seq model using NWP data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    14. Masseran, Nurulkamal, 2016. "Modeling the fluctuations of wind speed data by considering their mean and volatility effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 777-784.
    15. Gao, Yuan & Miyata, Shohei & Akashi, Yasunori, 2022. "Interpretable deep learning models for hourly solar radiation prediction based on graph neural network and attention," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    16. Hao Zhen & Dongxiao Niu & Min Yu & Keke Wang & Yi Liang & Xiaomin Xu, 2020. "A Hybrid Deep Learning Model and Comparison for Wind Power Forecasting Considering Temporal-Spatial Feature Extraction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-24, November.
    17. Zhao, Jing & Guo, Zhen-Hai & Su, Zhong-Yue & Zhao, Zhi-Yuan & Xiao, Xia & Liu, Feng, 2016. "An improved multi-step forecasting model based on WRF ensembles and creative fuzzy systems for wind speed," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 808-826.
    18. Wang, Lei & He, Yigang, 2022. "M2STAN: Multi-modal multi-task spatiotemporal attention network for multi-location ultra-short-term wind power multi-step predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yagang & Pan, Zhiya & Wang, Hui & Wang, Jingchao & Zhao, Zheng & Wang, Fei, 2023. "Achieving wind power and photovoltaic power prediction: An intelligent prediction system based on a deep learning approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    2. Chen, Fuhao & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Yamin & Tjernberg, Lina Bertling, 2024. "A novel meta-learning approach for few-shot short-term wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 362(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Chenyu & Zhang, Xuemin & Mei, Shengwei & Zhen, Zhao & Jia, Mengshuo & Li, Zheng & Tang, Haiyan, 2022. "Numerical weather prediction enhanced wind power forecasting: Rank ensemble and probabilistic fluctuation awareness," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    2. Zhao, Beizhen & He, Xin & Ran, Shaolin & Zhang, Yong & Cheng, Cheng, 2024. "Spatial correlation learning based on graph neural network for medium-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    3. Yang, Ting & Yang, Zhenning & Li, Fei & Wang, Hengyu, 2024. "A short-term wind power forecasting method based on multivariate signal decomposition and variable selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    4. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2023. "Multivariate wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective feature selection approach and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    5. Hu, Yue & Liu, Hanjing & Wu, Senzhen & Zhao, Yuan & Wang, Zhijin & Liu, Xiufeng, 2024. "Temporal collaborative attention for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    6. Al-qaness, Mohammed A.A. & Ewees, Ahmed A. & Fan, Hong & Abualigah, Laith & Elaziz, Mohamed Abd, 2022. "Boosted ANFIS model using augmented marine predator algorithm with mutation operators for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    7. Bentsen, Lars Ødegaard & Warakagoda, Narada Dilp & Stenbro, Roy & Engelstad, Paal, 2023. "Spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting using graph networks and novel Transformer architectures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    8. Han, Yan & Mi, Lihua & Shen, Lian & Cai, C.S. & Liu, Yuchen & Li, Kai & Xu, Guoji, 2022. "A short-term wind speed prediction method utilizing novel hybrid deep learning algorithms to correct numerical weather forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    9. Ma, Zhengjing & Mei, Gang, 2022. "A hybrid attention-based deep learning approach for wind power prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    10. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2024. "Wind power forecasting: A temporal domain generalization approach incorporating hybrid model and adversarial relationship-based training," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    11. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zheng, Yichu & Ma, Li & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2024. "Wind power forecasting: A transfer learning approach incorporating temporal convolution and adversarial training," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    12. Wen, Songkang & Li, Yanting & Su, Yan, 2022. "A new hybrid model for power forecasting of a wind farm using spatial–temporal correlations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 155-168.
    13. Zhao, Jing & Guo, Zhenhai & Guo, Yanling & Lin, Wantao & Zhu, Wenjin, 2021. "A self-organizing forecast of day-ahead wind speed: Selective ensemble strategy based on numerical weather predictions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    14. Yang, Yang & Lang, Jin & Wu, Jian & Zhang, Yanyan & Su, Lijie & Song, Xiangman, 2022. "Wind speed forecasting with correlation network pruning and augmentation: A two-phase deep learning method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 267-282.
    15. de Azevedo Takara, Lucas & Teixeira, Ana Clara & Yazdanpanah, Hamed & Mariani, Viviana Cocco & dos Santos Coelho, Leandro, 2024. "Optimizing multi-step wind power forecasting: Integrating advanced deep neural networks with stacking-based probabilistic learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    16. Henrik Zsiborács & Gábor Pintér & András Vincze & Nóra Hegedűsné Baranyai, 2022. "Wind Power Generation Scheduling Accuracy in Europe: An Overview of ENTSO-E Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-58, December.
    17. Wang, Han & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Jie & Li, Li, 2019. "Sequence transfer correction algorithm for numerical weather prediction wind speed and its application in a wind power forecasting system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 1-10.
    18. Liu, Guanjun & Wang, Yun & Qin, Hui & Shen, Keyan & Liu, Shuai & Shen, Qin & Qu, Yuhua & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2023. "Probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting of wind speed based on multi-network deep ensembles method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 231-247.
    19. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu, 2020. "A vanishing moment ensemble model for wind speed multi-step prediction with multi-objective base model selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    20. Dai, Xiaoran & Liu, Guo-Ping & Hu, Wenshan, 2023. "An online-learning-enabled self-attention-based model for ultra-short-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:336:y:2023:i:c:s0306261923001794. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.