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Utilizing financial market information in forecasting real growth, inflation and real exchange rate

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  • Junttila, Juha
  • Korhonen, Marko

Abstract

In this paper we build an open economy extension of the Gordon (1962) valuation model that suggests a simple forecasting system for three macroeconomic variables; the real growth, inflation and real exchange rate. All the forecasting equations in our system utilize current financial market information in the form of dividend yields and short-term interest rate. Our empirical results indicate that these simple forms of financial market information are relevant for forecasting the time-varying underlying trends in the macroeconomic data for the U.K., Eurozone and Japan, when treating the U.S. as the world market.

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  • Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Utilizing financial market information in forecasting real growth, inflation and real exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 281-301, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:20:y:2011:i:2:p:281-301
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    Cited by:

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    3. Baghestani, Hamid & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2012. "Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 222-229.
    4. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.
    5. Kuosmanen, Petri & Nabulsi, Nasib & Vataja, Juuso, 2015. "Financial variables and economic activity in the Nordic countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 368-379.
    6. Emmanuel O. Akande & Elijah O. Akanni & Oyedamola F. Taiwo & Jeremiah D. Joshua & Abel Anthony, 2023. "Predicting inflation component drivers in Nigeria: a stacked ensemble approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-32, January.
    7. Heimonen, Kari & Junttila, Juha & Kärkkäinen, Samu, 2017. "Stock market and exchange rate information in the Taylor rule: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-18.
    8. Laine, Olli-Matti & Lindblad, Annika, 2020. "Nowcasting Finnish GDP growth using financial variables: a MIDAS approach," BoF Economics Review 4/2020, Bank of Finland.

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