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Density prediction of stock index returns using GARCH models: Frequentist or Bayesian estimation?

Listed author(s):
  • Hoogerheide, Lennart F.
  • Ardia, David
  • Corré, Nienke

Using GARCH models for density prediction of stock index returns, a comparison is provided between frequentist and Bayesian estimation. No significant difference is found between qualities of whole density forecasts, whereas the Bayesian approach exhibits significantly better left-tail forecast accuracy.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016517651200122X
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 116 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 322-325

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:116:y:2012:i:3:p:322-325
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.03.026
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Discussion Papers 2008-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  2. Hoogerheide, Lennart & van Dijk, Herman K., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall using adaptive importance sampling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 231-247, April.
  3. Hoogerheide, L.F. & Kaashoek, J.F. & van Dijk, H.K., 2005. "On the shape of posterior densities and credible sets in instrumental variable regression models with reduced rank: an application of flexible sampling methods using neural networks," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-12, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  4. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
  5. Teruo Nakatsuma & Hiroki Tsurumi, 1996. "ARMA-GARCH Models: Bayes Estimation Versus MLE, and Bayes Non-stationarity Test," Departmental Working Papers 199619, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  6. Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2010. "Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of asset returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 216-230, April.
  7. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  8. Ardia, David & Hoogerheide, Lennart F., 2010. "Efficient Bayesian estimation and combination of GARCH-type models," MPRA Paper 22919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Gianni Amisano & Raffaella Giacomini, 2005. "Comparing Density Forecsts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Working Papers ubs0504, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  10. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
  11. James Mitchell & Stephen G. Hall, 2005. "Evaluating, Comparing and Combining Density Forecasts Using the KLIC with an Application to the Bank of England and NIESR 'Fan' Charts of Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 995-1033, December.
  12. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  14. Luc Bauwens & Michel Lubrano, 1998. "Bayesian inference on GARCH models using the Gibbs sampler," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages 23-46.
  15. Geweke, J, 1993. "Bayesian Treatment of the Independent Student- t Linear Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 19-40, Suppl. De.
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